Match Info

Super League - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Kapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium (Gianyar)

Where to Watch on TV:


Indonesia	Indosiar, Vidio


	Bali United Pusam		Arema

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.3	3.5
	1.8	3.4	3.85	Watch
	1.78	3.72	4.18	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4
	1.86	3.52	4.03	Watch
	1.73	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.98)	3.46 ↓ (3.58)	3.96 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bali United Pusam
50.5%

Draw
26.4%

Arema
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

25.9%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

25%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bali United Pusam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Arema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bali United Pusam than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arema than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	44.4%	11.1%

Bali United Pusam - Arema Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bali United will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Arema will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bali United: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bali United (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hauptmeijer M. (G) 16. Rizky Dwi 2. Ferrari J. 4. Arel K. 14. Receveur T. (C) 8. Bruijn J. 18. Kadek Agung 10. Mustafic M. 7. Goppel T. 9. Kopitovic B. 47. Arjuna R.	31. Lucas Frigeri (G) 12. Marasabessy M. 6. Guevara J. (C) 26. Luiz Gustavo 28. Betinho 25. Matheus Blade 8. Fikri A. 96. Iksan M. 10. Valdeci 27. Setiawan D. 21. Puleio I.
Substitutes
5. Adi B. 33. Andhika M. 55. Made T. 93. Mahendra A. 44. Panji P. 91. Rahmat 19. Raven J. 95. Rustapa F. (G) 42. Simon M. 21. Wayan Arta (G)	15. Arjidan F. 13. Balinsa S. G. 20. Fachrezi R. 87. Farisi A. 14. Hariono J. 17. Mardiyanto D. 4. Odivan 24. Rafli M. 23. Rifai M. 41. Santoso D. 30. Satryo A. (G) 72. Setiawan B.
Coaches
Jansen J.	Marquinhos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Valdeci ↓, Balinsa S. G. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Kadek Agung ⚽, Goppel T. (A),
60', Balinsa S. G. 🟨,
64', Marasabessy M. ↓, Setiawan B. ↑,
64', Setiawan D. ↓, Mardiyanto D. ↑,
72', Matheus Blade 🟨,
84', Iksan M. ↓, Santoso D. ↑,
86', Arjuna R. 🟨,
87', Mustafic M. ↓, Simon M. ↑,
90+1', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Fachrezi R. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bali United won 2.

Bali United has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arema's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Bali United is a strong favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Bali United won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bali United won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.9:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bali United	3	2	0	1	6:3	3	6
7	Arema FC	3	1	2	0	8:4	4	5

Last Results with these Odds

Bali United Pusam - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 46.87%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bali United Pusam FC
Indonesian Super League
29.12.25	Bali United Pusam - Dewa United	0:0 ✺
22.12.25	PSBS Biak Numfor - Bali United Pusam	0:3 ✺
30.11.25	Borneo Samarinda - Bali United Pusam	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Bali United Pusam - Persis Solo	0:0 ✺
07.11.25	Bhayangkara - Bali United Pusam	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TWWTL
- Arema FC
Indonesian Super League
30.12.25	Arema - Persita Tangerang	0:1 ✺
23.12.25	Arema - Madura United	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Java United - Arema	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Persebaya Surabaya - Arema	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Arema - Persija Jakarta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Indonesian Super League
03.02.25	Arema - Bali United Pusam	1:0
11.09.24	Bali United Pusam - Arema	0:0
Indonesian President Cup
21.07.24	Bali United Pusam - Arema	0:1
Indonesian Super League
04.12.23	Bali United Pusam - Arema	3:2
21.07.23	Arema - Bali United Pusam	1:3
27.03.23	Arema - Bali United Pusam	1:3
13.08.22	Bali United Pusam - Arema	1:2

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