Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 July 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Koblandy Batyr Stadium (Aktobe) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Maqedonci G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Armenia	20:00	Fast Sports 2
Kazakhstan	22:00	Kazakhstan TV
Poland	18:00	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Aktobe		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.7	1.65	Watch
	4.95	3.55	1.65	Watch
	5.18	3.58	1.68
	5.09	3.63	1.69	Watch
	4.6	3.3	1.73
	5.52	3.67	1.7	Watch
	4.35	3.85	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.88 ↑ (4.61)	3.61 ↑ (3.6)	1.68 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe
19%

Draw
25.7%

Legia Warsaw
55.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

20%

25.7%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

25.2%

55.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.2%	8.1%	75.7%

Aktobe - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Aktobe will win (votes: 6 - 17.6%). Legia will win (votes: 25 - 73.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 8.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 58.7% – 88.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Aktobe (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aktobe (2.11) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Aktobe (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Legia Warsaw will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Aktobe (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Legia (votes: 11 - 64.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Vlad A. (G) 31. Tanzharikov A. 30. Korzun N. 26. Andjelkovic N. 5. Kairov B. (C) 14. Shvyrev V. 7. Sosah D. 88. Vatajelu B. 20. Zhukov G. 11. Shushenachev A. 29. Usenov D.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 23. Kun P. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 8. Augustyniak R. 22. Elitim J. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 28. Gual M. 25. Morishita R.
Substitutes
4. Agbo U. 42. Baydavletov A. 12. Doumbouya A. 18. Jean J. 52. Kusainov S. (G) 23. Kusyapov T. 19. Omirtaev O. 22. Seydakhmet E. 2. Skvortsov L. 1. Trofimets I. (G) 10. Umaev I.	9. Alfarela M. 50. Banasik W. (G) 4. Burch M. 11. Chodyna K. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 51. Mozie P. 18. Nsame J. 53. Urbanski W. 19. Vinagre R. 24. Ziolkowski J.
Coaches
Levchuk V.	Iordanescu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Usenov D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tanzharikov A. ↓, Skvortsov L. ↑,
56', Korzun N. 🟨,
59', Shvyrev V. ↓, Jean J. ↑,
59', Shushenachev A. ↓, Omirtaev O. ↑,
61', Vatajelu B. 🟨,
62', Morishita R. ↓, Chodyna K. ↑,
62', Gual M. ↓, Nsame J. ↑,
74', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Alfarela M. ↑,
75', Usenov D. ↓, Baydavletov A. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 1, Elitim J. ⚽, Chodyna K. (A),
90+3', Kapustka B. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

Recent performances by Aktobe have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Legia is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aktobe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Legia is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Aktobe won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe
UEFA Europa League
10.07.25	Legia Warsaw - Aktobe	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
05.07.25	Aktobe - Atyrau	2:0 ✺
29.06.25	Turan Turkistan - Aktobe	0:3 ✺
22.06.25	Aktobe - Astana	0:1 ✺
14.06.25	Kyzylzhar - Aktobe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWWLT
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Super Cup
13.07.25	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.07.25	Legia Warsaw - Aktobe	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.06.25	Legia Warsaw - Jablonec	1:0 ✺
25.06.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
21.06.25	Legia Warsaw - Wisła Płock	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
10.07.25	Legia Warsaw - Aktobe	1:0
28.08.14	Legia Warsaw - Aktobe	2:0
21.08.14	Aktobe - Legia Warsaw	0:1

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