Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 8

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Conejero Sanchez G. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	16:30	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Barakaldo		Mirandés

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.25	2.60
	2.40	3.00	2.65
	2.48	3.10	2.55
	2.70	2.90	2.89
	2.36	3.22	2.99	Watch
	2.65	2.70	2.85
	2.47	3.38	2.71
	2.40	3.15	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.52)	3.09 ↓ (3.22)	2.75 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
37%

Draw
29.7%

Mirandés
33.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.2%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

29%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Mirandés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirandés than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Barakaldo - Mirandés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Campos G. (G) 5. Muguruza A. 17. Trigueros P. 18. Gomez B. 3. Zoilo A. 19. Troncho A. 15. Jimenez I. 10. Pena A. (C) 21. Fernandez X. 11. Mattheus C. 27. Mateos E.	13. Badia E. (G) 22. Aguirregabiria M. 24. Fernandez J. 21. Arambarri A. 17. Perez P. 16. Lozano M. (C) 8. Martinez R. 23. Dorrio J. 19. Riki 10. Espinosa N. 9. Unzueta I.
Substitutes
7. Cabo J. 22. Calera S. 14. Collado U. 8. Huidobro J. 1. Ispizua I. (G) 4. Marotias O. 20. Okolo 26. Ruiz M. 9. Sola X. 28. Uruena A.	3. Arrillaga H. 14. Auria M. 7. de la Iglesia D. 12. Gonzalez J. 4. Navarro C. 15. Pedernales I. 18. Rodri 20. Rodrigo Tapia A. 5. Rodriguez P. 1. Ruiz J. (G) 11. Uzkudun A. 6. Verde A.
Coaches
de la Sota Aberasturi I.	Muneta A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Pena A. ⚽, Jimenez I. (A),
29', Arambarri A. 🟥,
32', Dorrio J. 🟨,
33', Fernandez X. 🟨,
36', Perez P. 🟨,
36', Espinosa N. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
37', Troncho A. 🟨,
39', Gomez B. 🟨,
45+7', Muguruza A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gomez B. ↓, Marotias O. ↑,
46', Fernandez X. ↓, Huidobro J. ↑,
46', Dorrio J. ↓, Uzkudun A. ↑,
57', 2 - 0, Troncho A. ⚽, Pena A. (A),
64', Riki ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
65', Mateos E. ↓, Cabo J. ↑,
70', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
74', Aguirregabiria M. ↓, Pedernales I. ↑,
74', Perez P. ↓, Rodrigo Tapia A. ↑,
81', Trigueros P. 🟨,
81', Pena A. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
84', Mattheus C. ↓, Okolo ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 17th in the Relegation and 6th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barakaldo won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Barakaldo has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:13 (averaging 1.2:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Barakaldo against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 10:8 goals (averaging 1.4:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Mirandes	9	4	2	3	12:10	2	14
15	Barakaldo	9	2	4	3	8:10	-2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Barakaldo - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 35.92%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Mirandés - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 35.92%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.10.26	UD Ourense - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Ferrol - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Barakaldo - CD Extremadura	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LTTLW
- CD Mirandés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.10.26	Mirandés - Zamora	1:1 ✺
04.10.26	Ponferradina - Mirandés	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	Mirandés - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Real Unión de Irun - Mirandés	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Mérida AD - Mirandés	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
01.08.26	Barakaldo - Mirandés	2:0
28.07.24	Barakaldo - Mirandés	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
03.02.19	Barakaldo - Mirandés	1:1
Spanish Copa Federacion
23.01.19	Mirandés - Barakaldo	2:0
09.01.19	Barakaldo - Mirandés	2:3
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
16.09.18	Mirandés - Barakaldo	1:1
25.02.18	Barakaldo - Mirandés	1:0

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