Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 29 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha (Guayaquil)

Referee: Alarcon J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 3


	Barcelona Guayaquil		Cobresal

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	9.5	Watch
	1.34	5	8.5
	1.33	5	9	Watch
	1.34	5.17	9.6
	1.34	5.17	9.48
	1.29	5	8.5	Watch
	1.35	5.21	9.2	Watch
	1.32	4.9	8.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.55)	5.06 ↑ (4.08)	9.02 ↑ (5.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona Guayaquil
70.9%

Draw
18.6%

Cobresal
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.8%

23.1%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

22.8%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona Guayaquil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Barcelona Guayaquil's performance.

Cobresal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cobresal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Barcelona Guayaquil that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cobresal than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cobresal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	13.3%	0%

Barcelona Guayaquil - Cobresal Predictions

Users Predictions: Barcelona Guayaquil will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burrai J. (G) 14. Rangel A. 32. Ramirez N. 3. Sosa L. 6. Chala A. 5. Jesus Trindade 22. Souza de Almeida L. 13. Corozo J. 10. Diaz D. (C) 7. Preciado A. 18. Fydriszewski F.	12. Santander A. (G) 21. Filla M. 4. Bechtholdt F. 5. Alarcon F. (C) 7. Jorquera M. 28. Cespedes D. 10. Valencia Rossel L. 13. Mesias C. 14. Garcia F. 9. Coelho D. 18. Munder C.
Substitutes
23. Arroyo D. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 17. Gaibor F. 2. Mario Pineida 12. Mendoza V. (G) 30. Oyola B. 20. Pinatares B. 16. Reasco D. 4. Rodriguez C. 25. Solano C. 19. Suarez M. 27. Vargas W.	6. Barrientos F. 36. Buss J. 19. Carrasco S. 16. Castro Gutierrez J. 1. Cerda Fernandez J. A. (G) 11. Lezcano G. 17. Lobos F. 8. Navarro L. 23. Pacheco G. 2. Pacheco I. 27. Roki M. 26. Sandoval R.
Coaches
Holan A.	Huerta G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Fydriszewski F. ⚽, Sosa L. (A),
17', Cespedes D. 🟨,
18', 2 - 0, Diaz D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Valencia Rossel L. ↓, Lezcano G. ↑,
46', Garcia F. ↓, Barrientos F. ↑,
46', Mesias C. ↓, Navarro L. ↑,
46', Munder C. ↓, Lobos F. ↑,
59', Souza de Almeida L. ↓, Arroyo D. ↑,
59', Diaz D. ↓, Gaibor F. ↑,
65', Preciado A. 🟨,
65', Preciado A. ↓, Oyola B. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Coelho D. ⚽, Cespedes D. (A),
72', Jorquera M. ↓, Pacheco G. ↑,
86', Jesus Trindade ↓, Solano C. ↑,
87', Corozo J. ↓, Pinatares B. ↑,

Preview

Barcelona is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cobresal is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Barcelona could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Barcelona is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Barcelona to win the game is with odds 1.34.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.05.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - Técnico Universitario	3:0 ✺
22.05.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
19.05.24	Cumbayá - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.05.24	São Paulo - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.05.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWWTT
- CD Cobresal
Chilean Primera Division
25.05.24	OHiggins - Cobresal	2:2 ✺
20.05.24	Cobresal - Coquimbo Unido	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.24	Talleres de Córdoba - Cobresal	1:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
11.05.24	Everton de Viña - Cobresal	3:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.24	Cobresal - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
02.04.24	Cobresal - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1

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