Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 9

Date: 18 April 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha (Guayaquil)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Barcelona Guayaquil		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	6	Watch
	1.41	4.2	6
	1.49	4.2	5.8	Watch
	1.49	4.42	6.17
	1.5	4.19	6.29	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.48	4.28	6.27	Watch
	1.49	4.2	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.51)	4.21 ↑ (3.96)	6.1 ↑ (6.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona Guayaquil
62.8%

Draw
22%

El Nacional
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

23.4%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

22.9%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona Guayaquil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

The chances for El Nacional have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The ML Model estimate for Barcelona Guayaquil aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 14. Rangel A. 37. Campi G. 2. Mario Pineida (C) 23. Arroyo D. 5. Jesus Trindade 13. Corozo J. 7. Gomez J. 21. Valiente J. 9. Rivero O.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 18. Rivera B. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 19. Mejia E. 77. Hernandez B. 30. Carabali F. 17. Velez C. 15. Cela A. 20. Guisamano J. 99. Reasco D. 21. Ledesma A.
Substitutes
3. Arreaga X. 10. Caicedo F. 26. Castillo Segura B. D. 6. Chala A. 44. Chala Rosales W. J. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 16. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 25. Solano C. 22. Souza de Almeida L. 4. Vallecilla G. 27. Vargas W.	59. Borja F. 13. Caicedo E. 29. Cevallos J. 7. Chala J. 16. Cifuentes J. 33. Congo J. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 5. Flor F. 8. Martinez F. 25. Montano M. 6. Olmedo M. 14. Pazmino D.
Coaches
Castillo S.	Asad O. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Hernandez B. ↓, Montano M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 0, Rivero O. ⚽, Corozo J. (A),
68', Velez C. ↓, Olmedo M. ↑,
68', Guisamano J. ↓, Chala J. ↑,
68', Ledesma A. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
70', Gomez J. ↓, Solano C. ↑,
74', Arroyo D. ↓, Castillo Segura B. D. ↑,
75', Corozo J. ↓, Souza de Almeida L. ↑,
83', Cela A. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
86', Jesus Trindade ↓, Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↑,
86', Valiente J. ↓, Cortez Casierra G. J. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 3.

Barcelona is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

El Nacional is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Barcelona is certain favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 7 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 35:26 (average 1.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Barcelona won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 25:9 (average 2.5:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.04.25	Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	River Plate - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
01.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
28.03.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Delfín	2:0 ✺
17.03.25	Técnico Universitario - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LTWWW
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.04.25	El Nacional - Independiente del Valle	1:3 ✺
04.04.25	Libertad Loja - El Nacional	1:3 ✺
30.03.25	El Nacional - Orense	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	El Nacional - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Manta - El Nacional	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
26.02.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:1
19.02.25	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1
Club Friendly
16.11.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	6:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.10.24	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:0
18.04.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:0
05.11.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	3:2
28.05.23	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	4:1

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