Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 7

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	São Paulo		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.1	5	Watch
	1.8	3.4	5
	1.87	3.2	4.75	Watch
	1.87	3.24	5.22
	1.84	3.2	5.18	Watch
	1.75	3.2	5
	1.86	3.24	5.31	Watch
	1.87	3.2	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.9)	3.22 ↓ (3.45)	5.03 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
51.6%

Draw
29.5%

Fortaleza
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

27.4%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

27.5%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.1%	11.1%	27.8%

São Paulo - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 28. Franco A. 22. Ruan Tressoldi 18. Wendell 25. Alisson 21. Bobadilla D. 47. Matheus Alves 48. Lucas Ferreira 17. Andre Silva 11. Ferreira	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 14. Mancuso E. 13. Kuscevic B. 39. Gustavo Mancha 6. Bruno Pacheco 20. Matheus Rossetto 88. Lucas Sasha 8. Emmanuel Martinez 22. Yago Pikachu (C) 9. Lucero J. 26. Breno Lopes
Substitutes
43. Felipe Negrucci 93. Jandrei (G) 7. Lucas Moura 45. Lucca Marques 10. Luciano 36. Patryck 15. Rodriguinho 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 6. Soares C. 50. Young (G)	19. Allanzinho 77. Andrade K. 12. Brenno (G) 41. Bruninho 10. Calebe 23. David Luiz 18. Deyverson 5. Fernandez P. 38. Lucca Prior 11. Marinho 7. Pochettino T. 17. Ze Welison
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Lucas Ferreira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Joao Ricardo 🟨,
64', Ferreira (Pen),
65', Ferreira ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
65', Matheus Alves ↓, Luciano ↑,
69', Breno Lopes ↓, Marinho ↑,
74', Gustavo Mancha 🟨,
80', Lucero J. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
81', Gustavo Mancha ↓, David Luiz ↑,
81', Matheus Rossetto ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
84', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Ryan Francisco ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.

São Paulo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fortaleza is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Fortaleza has had a series of away games.

In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.

There will not play in São Paulo: Diaz E. (Yellow Cards) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Marcos Antonio (Yellow Cards) Oscar (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Ankle Injury) Robert Arboleda (Inactive) Young (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Britez E. (Ankle Injury) Moises (Injury) Titi (Red Card)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Franco A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Injury) Rodrigo (Inactive)

We predict that São Paulo will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.3:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Ceará - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	São Paulo - Santos	2:1 ✺
16.04.25	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WTWWT
- Fortaleza EC
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Retrô Brasil - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Fortaleza - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
16.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.07.24	Fortaleza - São Paulo	1:0
13.04.24	São Paulo - Fortaleza	1:2
20.09.23	São Paulo - Fortaleza	1:2
11.05.23	Fortaleza - São Paulo	0:0
28.08.22	São Paulo - Fortaleza	0:1
08.05.22	Fortaleza - São Paulo	1:1
10.11.21	Fortaleza - São Paulo	1:1

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