Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 11

Date: 14 October 2025, Tuesday


	Basingstoke Town		Chertsey Town

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.35	2.78
	2.17	3.65	2.87
	2.18	3.4	2.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.4)	3.47 ↑ (3.45)	2.85 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Basingstoke Town
41.7%

Draw
26.3%

Chertsey Town
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

26.7%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

26.1%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Basingstoke Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Chertsey Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Basingstoke Town than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chertsey Town than the current prediction. (+2%)

Basingstoke Town - Chertsey Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', 1 - 0, Wilson ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 1 - 1, McCoy O. ⚽,
78', Hector D. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 1, Clark J. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 and 11).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Chertsey has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Basingstoke won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Basingstoke won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Basingstoke Town - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.44%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Basingstoke Town
English Southern League South Division
11.10.25	Uxbridge - Basingstoke Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Basingstoke Town - Shaftesbury	2:1 ✺
English Southern League South Division
27.09.25	Gloucester City - Basingstoke Town	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Basingstoke Town - Yate Town	4:2 ✺
20.09.25	Basingstoke Town - Havant & Waterlooville	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLWL
- Chertsey Town
English Southern League South Division
11.10.25	Taunton Town - Chertsey Town	0:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Chertsey Town - Tilbury	1:2 ✺
English Southern League South Division
23.09.25	Chertsey Town - Havant & Waterlooville	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Chertsey Town - Gosport Borough	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Chertsey Town - Cray Valley Paper Mills	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
08.03.25	Basingstoke Town - Chertsey Town	1:3
12.11.24	Chertsey Town - Basingstoke Town	3:0

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