Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 9

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday


	Basingstoke Town		Yate Town

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.75	3.65
	1.78	3.81	3.62
	1.81	3.68	3.64
	1.96	3.4	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.96)	3.66 ↑ (3.4)	3.6 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Basingstoke Town
49.9%

Draw
24.9%

Yate Town
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

27%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

25.7%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Basingstoke Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Yate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Basingstoke Town than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yate Town than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Basingstoke Town - Yate Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Yate (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Wilson ⚽,
28', 2 - 0, Wilson ⚽,
43', 2 - 1, (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
69', 3 - 1, Ferdinand L. ⚽,
84', 4 - 1, Wilson (Pen),
90+7', 4 - 2, Evans-Harriott A. ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 and 21 in the zone Relegation).

Basingstoke is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Yate has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Yate may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Basingstoke could have a small edge in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Basingstoke Town
English Southern League South Division
20.09.25	Basingstoke Town - Havant & Waterlooville	1:3 ✺
06.09.25	Basingstoke Town - Hungerford Town	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Bracknell Town - Basingstoke Town	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Basingstoke Town - Plymouth Parkway	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Taunton Town - Basingstoke Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLTT
- Yate Town
English Southern League South Division
20.09.25	Dorchester Town - Yate Town	2:0 ✺
09.09.25	Yate Town - Tiverton Town	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Yate Town - Gosport Borough	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Hungerford Town - Yate Town	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Yate Town - Chertsey Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWTLT

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