Match Info

Date: 23 September 2022, Friday

Location: Stade Paul-Antoniotti (Borgo)


	Bastia-Borgo		Le Mans

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.3	2.05
	3.2	3.1	2.12
	2.95	3.5	2.14
	3.3	3.64	2.14
	3.1	3.2	2.1
	3.15	3.48	2.07	Watch
	2.95	3.5	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.53)	3.39 ↑ (2.88)	2.12 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia-Borgo
29.7%

Draw
27%

Le Mans
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

31.3%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

34.1%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia-Borgo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bastia-Borgo's form might have worsened.

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Le Mans's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia-Borgo than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bastia-Borgo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Le Mans, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	18.7%	43.7%

Bastia Borgo - Le Mans Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Bastia-Borgo will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Le Mans will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Mans: 19.5% – 68.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Bastia-Borgo has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Le Mans is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Le Mans will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Bastia-Borgo won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Bastia-Borgo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Bastia-Borgo
French Ligue 3
16.09.22	Nancy - Bastia-Borgo	1:0 ✺
09.09.22	Bastia-Borgo - Concarneau	2:4 ✺
02.09.22	Dunkerque - Bastia-Borgo	2:0 ✺
26.08.22	Bastia-Borgo - Orleans	0:2 ✺
19.08.22	Bourg-Péronnas - Bastia-Borgo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLLT
- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 3
16.09.22	Le Mans - Paris 13 Atletico	4:0 ✺
09.09.22	Nancy - Le Mans	2:0 ✺
05.09.22	Le Mans - Red Star	0:0 ✺
26.08.22	Concarneau - Le Mans	1:0 ✺
22.08.22	Le Mans - Sedan	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
22.04.22	Le Mans - Bastia-Borgo	0:1
03.12.21	Bastia-Borgo - Le Mans	1:0
19.02.21	Le Mans - Bastia-Borgo	1:1
18.09.20	Bastia-Borgo - Le Mans	1:1

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