Match Info

National - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Guy Piriou (Concarneau)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	FFF TV
World	FIFA+


	Concarneau		Le Mans

	1	X	2
	4.4	3.2	1.71
	5.2	3.6	1.65
	5.22	3.79	1.63
	5.09	3.79	1.59	Watch
	4.5	3.2	1.75
	5.14	3.7	1.62	Watch
	5.2	3.6	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.96 ↑ (3.61)	3.55 ↑ (3.33)	1.66 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Concarneau
18.5%

Draw
25.9%

Le Mans
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

27.9%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

26.6%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Concarneau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Concarneau's form might have worsened.

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Le Mans's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Concarneau than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Concarneau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Le Mans, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Concarneau - Le Mans Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Le Mans will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Salles E. (G) 22. Bamba R. 26. Sinquin T. 4. Jannez G. 2. Wahib A. 28. Touzghar R. 17. Etuin M. 10. Mouazan B. 11. Soukouna Y. 18. Kielt S. 27. Samoura A.	16. Kocik N. (G) 12. Ribelin A. 21. Eyoum T. 17. Yohou S. 5. Voyer H. 3. Burlet V. 27. Rossignol M. 8. Lauray A. 33. Bernardeau G. 9. Rabillard A. 15. Vula A.
Substitutes
5. Etcheverria B. 7. Gromat J. 1. Philippon A. (G) 9. Sery J. 3. Silva A.	25. Gueye D. 18. Lamgahez Z. 26. Oggad B. 24. Ouchen A. 29. Oudjani A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Kielt S. ⚽,
19', Eyoum T. ↓, Lamgahez Z. ↑,
32', 2 - 0, Bamba R. ⚽, Kielt S. (A),
45+4', Lauray A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Ribelin A. ↓, Oggad B. ↑,
53', Voyer H. 🟨,
55', Vula A. ↓, Gueye D. ↑,
55', 2 - 1, Oggad B. ⚽,
59', Kielt S. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
66', 3 - 1, Etuin M. ⚽,
68', Oggad B. 🟨,
69', Wahib A. 🟨,
70', Samoura A. ↓, Gromat J. ↑,
72', Rossignol M. ↓, Oudjani A. ↑,
72', Bernardeau G. ↓, Ouchen A. ↑,
78', 4 - 1, Sery J. ⚽, Mouazan B. (A),
80', 5 - 1, Touzghar R. ⚽, Soukouna Y. (A),
81', Soukouna Y. ↓, Etcheverria B. ↑,
81', Mouazan B. ↓, Silva A. ↑,
86', Etcheverria B. 🟨,
90+3', 5 - 2, Gueye D. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Concarneau won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Concarneau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Le Mans is considered a favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Concarneau won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Concarneau won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Concarneau
French Ligue 3
25.04.25	Concarneau - Quevilly	5:1 ✺
18.04.25	Bourg-Péronnas - Concarneau	0:0 ✺
11.04.25	Concarneau - Boulogne	1:1 ✺
04.04.25	Dijon - Concarneau	0:1 ✺
28.03.25	Concarneau - Sochaux	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WTTWT
- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 3
02.05.25	Le Mans - Rouen FC	2:2 ✺
25.04.25	Valenciennes - Le Mans	0:1 ✺
18.04.25	Le Mans - Nîmes	4:0 ✺
11.04.25	Orleans - Le Mans	1:2 ✺
04.04.25	Le Mans - Aubagne	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
18.01.25	Le Mans - Concarneau	3:1
06.02.23	Le Mans - Concarneau	3:2
26.08.22	Concarneau - Le Mans	1:0
07.03.22	Concarneau - Le Mans	0:1
24.09.21	Le Mans - Concarneau	1:1
19.03.21	Le Mans - Concarneau	0:2
13.10.20	Concarneau - Le Mans	3:1

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