Match Info

National League South - Round 39

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Twerton Park (Bath)


	Bath City		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.08
	3.54	3.34	2.07
	3.37	3.5	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.1
	3.3	3.41	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↓ (3.63)	3.35 ↓ (3.5)	2.08 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bath City
27.8%

Draw
27.7%

Hornchurch
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

26.3%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

25.9%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bath City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bath City than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Bath City - Hornchurch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Sandat H. ⚽,
45+1', 0 - 2, Sandat H. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', 1 - 2, Wilson S. ⚽,
68', Sandat H. 🟥,
74', 2 - 2, Batten J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Bath is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Hornchurch's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hornchurch will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bath won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Bath won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Bath City - the odds 3.63 are the expected chance of winning is 25.29%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bath City
English National League South
10.03.26	Bath City - Farnborough	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Chelmsford City - Bath City	7:1 ✺
03.03.26	Bath City - Slough Town	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Enfield Town - Bath City	1:1 ✺
24.02.26	Bath City - Weston-super-Mare	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTT
- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
10.03.26	Horsham - Hornchurch	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Hornchurch - Slough Town	2:3 ✺
03.03.26	Hornchurch - Salisbury	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hornchurch - Worthing	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Dover Athletic - Hornchurch	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
18.10.25	Hornchurch - Bath City	3:2
08.02.25	Bath City - Hornchurch	0:2
19.10.24	Hornchurch - Bath City	0:0
09.03.13	Hornchurch - Bath City	2:1
27.10.12	Bath City - Hornchurch	3:1

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