Match Info

National League South - Round 38

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium (Horsham)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Bolivia	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	DAZN Canada
Ecuador	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Paraguay	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN / App
Spain	DAZN Espana
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA
Venezuela	DAZN


	Horsham		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.2	2.45
	2.66	3.3	2.6
	2.62	3.41	2.53	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.5
	2.54	3.2	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.66)	3.24 ↓ (3.49)	2.51 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Horsham
35%

Draw
28.4%

Hornchurch
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

26.6%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

25.6%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Horsham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Horsham than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Horsham - Hornchurch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Sandat H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', 0 - 2, Poleon D. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Horsham won 1.

Horsham has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hornchurch has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Horsham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Horsham won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Horsham won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Horsham FC: 1.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Horsham FC	9	2	5	2	9:10	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Horsham - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.89%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Hornchurch - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.51%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Horsham FC
English National League South
07.03.26	Totton - Horsham	3:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
28.02.26	Horsham - Southend United	1:2 ✺
English National League South
24.02.26	Horsham - Ebbsfleet United	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Horsham - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Enfield Town - Horsham	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLTWL
- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
07.03.26	Hornchurch - Slough Town	2:3 ✺
03.03.26	Hornchurch - Salisbury	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hornchurch - Worthing	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Dover Athletic - Hornchurch	4:1 ✺
21.02.26	Totton - Hornchurch	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
04.10.25	Hornchurch - Horsham	1:1
English Isthmian League Premier Division
06.01.24	Hornchurch - Horsham	1:1
12.08.23	Horsham - Hornchurch	1:2
01.04.23	Horsham - Hornchurch	3:2
22.10.22	Hornchurch - Horsham	3:1
25.01.22	Hornchurch - Horsham	2:0
14.08.21	Horsham - Hornchurch	0:2

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