Match Info

National League South - Round 25

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday


	Hornchurch		Salisbury

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	4
	1.62	3.95	4.45
	1.69	3.96	4.3
	1.71	4.23	4.04	Watch
	1.7	3.75	4.2
	1.65	3.92	4.21
	1.69	4	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.72)	3.97 ↑ (3.7)	4.17 ↓ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
54.9%

Draw
23.1%

Salisbury
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

25.1%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

24.4%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Salisbury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salisbury than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Hornchurch - Salisbury Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Phillips G. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 16).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Hornchurch is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Hornchurch won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Salisbury: 4.6%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Salisbury	10	5	3	2	18:7	11	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
28.02.26	Hornchurch - Worthing	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Dover Athletic - Hornchurch	4:1 ✺
21.02.26	Totton - Hornchurch	1:0 ✺
17.02.26	Dorking Wanderers - Hornchurch	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Hornchurch - Tonbridge Angels	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLLW
- Salisbury FC
English National League South
28.02.26	Salisbury - Maidstone United	0:1 ✺
24.02.26	Maidenhead United - Salisbury	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Chelmsford City - Salisbury	2:2 ✺
17.02.26	Salisbury - Chippenham Town	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Salisbury - Chesham United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
25.08.25	Salisbury - Hornchurch	3:3
01.02.25	Hornchurch - Salisbury	1:1
12.10.24	Salisbury - Hornchurch	2:2
12.01.13	Hornchurch - Salisbury	2:2
18.08.12	Salisbury - Hornchurch	N/A

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