Match Info

National League South - Round 36

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday


	Hornchurch		Worthing

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.65	2.15
	2.91	3.79	2.19
	2.88	3.86	2.16	Watch
	2.88	3.5	2.2
	2.91	3.74	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (2.98)	3.71 ↓ (3.85)	2.18 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
32.3%

Draw
25.1%

Worthing
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

24.1%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

23.9%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Worthing has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Worthing than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Hornchurch - Worthing Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Rees J. ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, Poleon D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 2 - 1, Jenks T. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 1.

Hornchurch is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Worthing has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Worthing may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hornchurch has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Hornchurch won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Worthing - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.8%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
24.02.26	Dover Athletic - Hornchurch	4:1 ✺
21.02.26	Totton - Hornchurch	1:0 ✺
17.02.26	Dorking Wanderers - Hornchurch	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Hornchurch - Tonbridge Angels	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWT
- Worthing FC
English National League South
24.02.26	Worthing - Torquay United	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Worthing - Slough Town	4:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Worthing	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Dover Athletic - Worthing	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Worthing - Weston-super-Mare	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
29.11.25	Worthing - Hornchurch	5:0
25.03.25	Hornchurch - Worthing	1:0
07.09.24	Worthing - Hornchurch	0:0
English Isthmian League Premier Division
22.01.22	Worthing - Hornchurch	1:1
16.11.21	Hornchurch - Worthing	1:3
17.08.19	Worthing - Hornchurch	0:6
30.03.19	Worthing - Hornchurch	3:1

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