Match Info

National League North - Round 34

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Bedford Town		Chorley

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.6	1.83
	3.45	3.55	1.92
	3.06	3.77	2.06
	3.53	3.77	1.92	Watch
	3.5	3.4	1.95
	3.5	3.52	1.89
	2.9	3.8	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.91)	3.63 ↓ (3.73)	1.95 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bedford Town
27.5%

Draw
25.3%

Chorley
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

24.6%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

24.3%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bedford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Chorley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bedford Town than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Bedford Town - Chorley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Castiglione J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
70', 2 - 0, Mensah C. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 and 14).

Bedford is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Chorley has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bedford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Chorley might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Bedford won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Bedford: 2.14% Chorley: 1.12%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Bedford	10	5	1	4	14:14	0	16
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16:17	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Chorley - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.83%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bedford Town
English National League North
14.02.26	Merthyr Town - Bedford Town	7:1 ✺
07.02.26	Bedford Town - Chester	1:2 ✺
03.02.26	Curzon Ashton - Bedford Town	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Macclesfield Town - Bedford Town	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	Bedford Town - Kidderminster Harriers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLTLT
- Chorley
English National League North
17.02.26	AFC Telford United - Chorley	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Chorley - Radcliffe	0:1 ✺
10.02.26	Chorley - Southport	4:2 ✺
07.02.26	Merthyr Town - Chorley	2:3 ✺
03.02.26	Chorley - Leamington	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
22.11.25	Chorley - Bedford Town	1:0

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