Match Info
National League North - Round 5Date: 29 August 2026, SaturdayLocation: Penydarren Park (Merthyr)
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Merthyr Town |
|
Chorley |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
2.00 |
3.50 |
2.90 |
|
 |
2.00 |
3.40 |
3.00 |
|
 |
2.12 |
3.40 |
2.85 |
|
 |
2.13 |
3.61 |
3.15 |
|
 |
2.11 |
3.68 |
3.09 |
 Watch |
 |
2.10 |
3.55 |
3.10 |
|
 |
2.11 |
3.70 |
3.06 |
|
 |
2.07 |
3.55 |
2.95 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.08 ↓
(2.42) |
3.55 ↑
(3.45) |
3.01 ↑
(2.5) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Merthyr Town
43.9% | Draw
25.7% | Chorley
30.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Merthyr Town's performance.Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chorley might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-6.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Merthyr Town that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chorley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Merthyr Town - Chorley Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
#ad
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 23', 0 - 1, Clarke W. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 83', 1 - 1, Watts E. ⚽,
Preview
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky. Merthyr might have a minor edge in this game.In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Merthyr won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).Including home match between the teams, Merthyr won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.
Outrights of English National League North for now
Merthyr Town: 1.46% Chorley: 1.12%
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Last Results with these Odds
Merthyr Town - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.42%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.
Chorley - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.33%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Get 100% up to 500 SEK + 100 Free spins
Betting Bonus up to 1 000 EUR + 250 EUR free bet !
