Match Info

National League North - Round 32

Date: 10 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Victory Park (Chorley)


	Chorley		Southport

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3
	2.18	3.45	2.92
	2.1	3.52	3.14
	2.11	3.77	3.02	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3
	2.14	3.36	2.99
	2.05	3.5	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.82)	3.46 ↓ (3.52)	3.03 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chorley
43.3%

Draw
26.5%

Southport
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

25.9%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

25.5%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chorley's form might have worsened.

Southport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Southport's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chorley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southport than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Southport, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Chorley - Southport Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Southport (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Southport (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Lavelle T. ⚽,
17', 1 - 1, Blakeman A. ⚽,
34', 2 - 1, Popoola A. ⚽,
36', 2 - 2, Pedro D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
63', 3 - 2, Blakeman A. ⚽,
67', 4 - 2, Ellis M. ⚽,
84', Murphy-Worrell P. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chorley won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Chorley is a strong favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Chorley won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chorley won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 2:1).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Chorley: 1.12% Southport: 0.73%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16:17	-1	14
20	Southport	10	2	3	5	13:20	-7	9

Last Results with these Odds

Southport - the odds 3.8 are the expected chance of winning is 23.99%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chorley
English National League North
07.02.26	Merthyr Town - Chorley	2:3 ✺
03.02.26	Chorley - Leamington	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Chorley - Peterborough Sports	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Chorley - Darlington	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Chester - Chorley	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTLLT
- Southport
English National League North
07.02.26	Southport - Darlington	2:2 ✺
03.02.26	King`s Lynn Town - Southport	2:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
31.01.26	Fylde - Southport	0:1 ✺
English National League North
24.01.26	Southport - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
20.01.26	South Shields - Southport	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
21.10.25	Southport - Chorley	1:1
25.01.25	Southport - Chorley	0:0
26.08.24	Chorley - Southport	3:1
17.02.24	Chorley - Southport	3:0
28.08.23	Southport - Chorley	0:2
04.02.23	Chorley - Southport	1:2
05.11.22	Southport - Chorley	2:1

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