Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadionul Ilie Oană (Ploiesti)

Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2
Germany	Laola1
Israel	Sport 4
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Beitar Jerusalem		AEK Larnaca

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.40	3.30	Watch
	2.00	3.25	3.40
	2.10	3.25	3.35	Watch
	2.02	3.36	3.63
	2.04	3.51	3.47	Watch
	1.98	3.25	3.40
	2.08	3.55	3.58	Watch
	2.00	3.40	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.18)	3.37 ↑ (3.3)	3.45 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Beitar Jerusalem
45.8%

Draw
27.4%

AEK Larnaca
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

28.6%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.7%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Beitar Jerusalem has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

AEK Larnaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beitar Jerusalem than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Beitar Jerusalem - AEK Larnaca Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Beitar Jerusalem will win (votes: 14 - 70%). AEK Larnaca will win (votes: 2 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Beitar Jerusalem: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Beitar Jerusalem (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
55. Miguel Silva (G) 2. Antwi N. 4. Carabali B. 5. Cohen G. 16. Cohen Y. 15. Muche N. 40. Boris Enow 26. Worko D. 77. Atzili O. (C) 19. Weissman S. 9. Kalu J.	51. Paraskevas A. (G) 21. Miramon 15. Milicevic H. (C) 4. Saborit E. 13. Gurfinkel Y. 6. Pankov I. 7. Ledes Gustavo 14. Layouni A. 20. Repas J. 8. Amyn Y. 11. Bajic R.
Substitutes
13. Ansah E. 8. Ben Shimol Z. 20. Dahan O. 25. Deri L. 14. Elimelech R. 44. Gadrani L. 24. Markovitch N. 11. Muzie T. 33. Nir D. (G) 22. Ozer Y. (G) 7. Shua Y. 30. Yosefi T.	44. Adoni Z. 99. Demetriou D. (G) 22. Ekpolo G. 37. Gerasimou D. 9. Ivanovic D. 25. Kyriakou C. 1. Muftic V. (G) 29. Naoum G. 17. Pileas K. 10. Rubio W.
Coaches
Cohen A.	Camoranesi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Milicevic H. (Penalty Awarded),
41', Cohen A. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, Atzili O. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kalu J. ↓, Ansah E. ↑,
46', Layouni A. ↓, Ekpolo G. ↑,
49', Muche N. 🟨,
51', Carabali B. 🟨,
52', 1 - 2, Milicevic H. ⚽,
59', Weissman S. ↓, Muzie T. ↑,
68', Cohen Y. 🟨,
69', Worko D. 🟨,
69', Gurfinkel Y. ↓, Pileas K. ↑,
70', Miramon ↓, Rubio W. ↑,
75', Cohen Y. ↓, Deri L. ↑,
75', Muche N. ↓, Ben Shimol Z. ↑,
77', Saborit E. ↓, Adoni Z. ↑,
87', 2 - 2, Atzili O. ⚽, Antwi N. (A),
90', Atzili O. ↓, Shua Y. ↑,
90', Ledes Gustavo ↓, Ivanovic D. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 3, Bajic R. ⚽,
90+5', Shua Y. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
94', Pankov I. ↓, Kyriakou C. ↑,
103', Adoni Z. 🟨,
105+1', Ekpolo G. 🟨,
111', Worko D. ↓, Markovitch N. ↑,
115', Antwi N. 🟨,
118', Milicevic H. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Milicevic H. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Carabali B. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Ivanovic D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Ansah E. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Rubio W. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Cohen Y. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Pileas K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Muzie T. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Kyriakou C. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-0. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadionul Ilie Oană.

In recent matches, Beitar Jerusalem has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

AEK Larnaca is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, AEK Larnaca has had a series of away games.

Beitar Jerusalem might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Beitar Jerusalem won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Beitar Jerusalem won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Beitar Jerusalem
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	AEK Larnaca - Beitar Jerusalem	0:1 ✺
Israeli Toto Cup
18.07.26	Beitar Jerusalem - Hapoel Tel Aviv	2:3 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
09.07.26	Beitar Jerusalem - Dukagjini	1:0 ✺
07.07.26	Arda Kardzhali - Beitar Jerusalem	0:0 ✺
03.07.26	Botev Vratsa - Beitar Jerusalem	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWTT
- AEK Larnaca
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	AEK Larnaca - Beitar Jerusalem	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.26	Apollon Limassol - AEK Larnaca	0:0 ✺
10.07.26	Ajax - AEK Larnaca	1:0 ✺
07.07.26	PAOK - AEK Larnaca	3:2 ✺
04.07.26	Helmond Sport - AEK Larnaca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	AEK Larnaca - Beitar Jerusalem	0:1
Club Friendly
22.07.21	Beitar Jerusalem - AEK Larnaca	0:0

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