Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Relegation - Final

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.88	2.4
	2.65	2.95	2.45
	2.85	3.05	2.55
	2.85	3.02	2.72
	2.85	2.97	2.65	Watch
	2.8	2.88	2.5
	2.84	2.99	2.64
	2.85	3.05	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (2.93)	2.97 ↑ (2.96)	2.56 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
32.8%

Draw
31.1%

Paços de Ferreira
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

31.2%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

29.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Belenenses - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Belenenses will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Grilo D. (C) 5. Brasido D. 39. Pinto A. 4. Nuno Tomas 27. Barros E. 15. Tavares J. 20. Paulo D. 17. Horta Leitao D. 21. Morgado T. 11. Sambu M. 9. Pereira R.	28. Marafona (G) 5. Antunes V. (C) 3. Diegao 4. Cardoso G. 18. Pedro R. 23. Ferigra E. 90. Lumungo R. 6. Joao Caiado 11. Pavlic I. 22. Mota 19. Fonte R.
Substitutes
26. Acosta Pinerez C. A. 13. Cuca 29. Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 23. Fernandes X. 12. Gabriel Passos 8. Gomes Tavares D. 6. Maria G. 24. Neto T. (G) 19. Triana C.	21. Anilson 37. Brito R. 30. Costinha 2. Icaro 99. Liberal A. 10. Morozov V. 24. Pedro Z. (G) 13. Pinto J. 8. Welton
Coaches
Nuno J.	Candido F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Joao Caiado 🟨,
43', Morgado T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Pedro R. ↓, Welton ↑,
46', Lumungo R. ↓, Costinha ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Horta Leitao D. ⚽,
66', Sambu M. ↓, Ekanga Ondoa H. O. ↑,
66', Tavares J. ↓, Fernandes X. ↑,
70', Welton 🟨,
72', Horta Leitao D. 🟨,
73', Paulo D. ↓, Cuca ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Fernandes X. ⚽,
75', 2 - 1, Pinto J. ⚽,
76', Mota 🟨,
76', Grilo D. 🟨,
78', Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 🟨,
87', Antunes V. ↓, Anilson ↑,
90', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Acosta Pinerez C. A. ↑,
90', Joao Caiado ↓, Liberal A. ↑,
90+4', Cuca 🟨,
90+7', Diegao 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Belenenses is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paços de Ferreira is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Belenenses won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Belenenses - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 31.57%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Paços de Ferreira - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.23%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
17.05.25	Belenenses - Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
10.05.25	Amarante - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
04.05.25	Belenenses - Fafe	3:2 ✺
26.04.25	Varzim - Belenenses	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWWTT
- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
17.05.25	Académico de Viseu - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Paços de Ferreira - Felgueiras	1:2 ✺
04.05.25	Alverca - Paços de Ferreira	1:0 ✺
25.04.25	Paços de Ferreira - Leiria	2:3 ✺
18.04.25	Portimonense - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
17.05.24	Paços de Ferreira - Belenenses	2:1
13.01.24	Belenenses - Paços de Ferreira	0:1

Belenenses - Paços de Ferreira: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide