Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 13

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	3.45	3.15	1.98
	3.57	3.15	2.07
	3.64	3.12	2.11	Watch
	3.5	2.9	2
	3.58	3.04	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (3.39)	3.07 ↑ (3.01)	2.04 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
25.7%

Draw
29.6%

Belenenses
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

30.9%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

29.8%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Varzim - Belenenses Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Costa P. (G) 2. Pimenta G. (C) 32. Rego R. 44. Vila Cova M. 31. Talocha 8. Oliveira R. 27. Boloto 45. Rebelo M. 35. Gunjo J. 19. Chamito 10. Joaozinho	99. Oliveira G. (G) 22. Bandarra M. 39. Pinto A. 4. Nuno Tomas (C) 15. Lucas J. 20. Paulo D. 21. Morgado T. 17. Horta Leitao D. 14. Afonso A. 23. Bruninho 89. Gastao J.
Substitutes
11. Benchi D. 71. Filipe L. 7. Gomes A. 14. Graca H. 51. Momo Mbaye (G) 16. Neumann T. 99. Pedro Clemente 17. Sequeira D. 18. Stitch	13. Cuca 31. David Rebelo 11. Duda 7. Eduardo W. 77. Jansonas R. 2. Machado J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', Rego R. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Bruninho ⚽, Horta Leitao D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Oliveira R. 🟨,
61', Rebelo M. ↓, Graca H. ↑,
61', Gunjo J. ↓, Pedro Clemente ↑,
61', Chamito ↓, Sequeira D. ↑,
68', Joaozinho ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
70', Bandarra M. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
70', Bruninho ↓, Duda ↑,
77', Boloto ↓, Benchi D. ↑,
80', 0 - 2, Duda ⚽, Gastao J. (A),
83', Paulo D. ↓, Cuca ↑,
83', Gastao J. ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
84', Afonso A. 🟨,
89', Afonso A. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Pedro Clemente ⚽, Pimenta G. (A),

Preview

Varzim is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Belenenses has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Belenenses may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Varzim won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
03.05.26	Académica Coimbra - Varzim	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Trofense - Varzim	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Varzim - Mafra	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Amarante - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTWLL
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
02.05.26	Belenenses - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Amarante - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Belenenses - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0 ✺
03.04.26	Trofense - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
14.03.26	Belenenses - Varzim	3:2
26.04.25	Varzim - Belenenses	0:0
01.03.25	Belenenses - Varzim	0:0

Varzim - Belenenses: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide