Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 12

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	2.8
	2.37	3.1	2.8
	2.44	3.21	3.05
	2.44	3.18	2.93	Watch
	2.45	3.03	3.03	Watch
	2.37	3.1	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.42)	3.12 ↑ (3.09)	2.9 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
38.6%

Draw
29.6%

Fafe
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

29.7%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.5%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Belenenses - Fafe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Grilo D. (C) 5. Brasido D. 4. Nuno Tomas 39. Pinto A. 21. Morgado T. 15. Tavares J. 20. Paulo D. 17. Horta Leitao D. 11. Sambu M. 9. Pereira R. 27. Barros E.	98. Alves C. (G) 21. Pereira M. 4. Teixeira L. 26. Batista J. 5. Nandinho 35. Cardoso F. (C) 8. Braga V. 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 10. Serra Matos P. M. 7. Leite T. 22. Bruninho
Substitutes
26. Acosta Pinerez C. A. 13. Cuca 29. Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 12. Gabriel Passos 6. Maria G. 24. Neto T. (G) 19. Triana C. 14. Varela J.	20. Amorim J. 1. Enes Guimaraes F. (G) 12. Farias E. 9. Kodama R. 6. Lucas Vital 11. Picas 3. Silva G. 2. Sousa B. 13. Vigario J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Sambu M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
50', 1 - 1, Nandinho ⚽,
58', Leite T. 🟨,
62', Braga V. ↓, Amorim J. ↑,
62', Bruninho ↓, Picas ↑,
67', Tavares J. ↓, Fernandes X. ↑,
67', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Ekanga Ondoa H. O. ↑,
67', Cardoso F. ↓, Farias E. ↑,
68', Nandinho ↓, Vigario J. ↑,
75', Amorim J. 🟨,
75', 2 - 1, Ekanga Ondoa H. O. ⚽,
77', Batista J. 🟨,
79', Sambu M. ↓, Cuca ↑,
79', Serra Matos P. M. ↓, Kodama R. ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Pereira R. ⚽,
90+1', Pereira R. ↓, Varela J. ↑,
90+1', Brasido D. ↓, Gabriel Passos ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 2, Leite T. ⚽,
90+9', Ribeiro Oliveira J. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Belenenses won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	Varzim - Belenenses	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Atlético CP - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
29.03.25	Lusitânia - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TTWTL
- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	Fafe - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
20.04.25	Lusitânia - Fafe	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Fafe - Amarante	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	1 Dezembro - Fafe	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Fafe - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.25	Fafe - Belenenses	0:1

Belenenses - Fafe: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide