Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 11

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	3.05	2.78	2.35
	3.64	2.7	2.61
	3.4	2.64	2.52	Watch
	2.9	2.75	2.45
	3.35	2.58	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↓ (3.29)	2.69 ↑ (2.46)	2.47 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
28.3%

Draw
34.3%

Belenenses
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

37.4%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

38.6%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Amarante - Belenenses Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte M. (G) 6. Almeida F. 4. Filipe J. 5. Innusah H. 3. Mendes F. 28. Pedro R. 10. Rodrigues D. 23. Saint-Louis J. 80. Ventura 22. Vivas S. 8. Zangre A.	99. Oliveira G. (G) 14. Afonso A. 22. Bandarra M. 27. Barros E. 23. Bruninho 66. Cesinha 89. Gastao J. 17. Horta Leitao D. 21. Morgado T. (C) 39. Pinto A. 19. Valente A.
Substitutes
88. Aguiar E. 90. Arome 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 58. Meireles A. 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 2. Ribeiro O. 99. Roger 71. Silva R.	13. Cuca 31. David Rebelo 7. Eduardo W. 77. Jansonas R. 15. Lucas J. 2. Machado J. 4. Nuno Tomas 28. Pinto G. (G) 5. Teixeira J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
45+1', 0 - 1, Afonso A. ⚽,
45+5', 1 - 1, Rodrigues D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Almeida F. ↓, Arome ↑,
66', Mendes F. 🟨,
71', Mendes F. 🟥,
72', 1 - 2, Bruninho (Penalty Awarded),
90+6', 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

Belenenses may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Amarante won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Last Results with these Odds

Amarante - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 27.97%, but this team recently wins 79% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
19.04.26	Mafra - Amarante	1:4 ✺
12.04.26	Académica Coimbra - Amarante	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Amarante - Varzim	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Amarante - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 WTWTW
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
19.04.26	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Belenenses - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0 ✺
03.04.26	Trofense - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Mafra - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
14.03.26	Belenenses - Varzim	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.26	Belenenses - Amarante	1:2
10.05.25	Amarante - Belenenses	1:4
15.03.25	Belenenses - Amarante	0:0

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