Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 10

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Sporting Lisbon B

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.1
	2.1	3.15	3.3
	2.16	3.28	3.64
	2.13	3.2	3.53	Watch
	2.18	3.21	3.36	Watch
	2.1	3.15	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.16)	3.18 ↑ (3.07)	3.37 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
43.6%

Draw
29%

Sporting Lisbon B
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

29.9%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

29.1%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Sporting Lisbon B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Belenenses aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Grilo D. (G) 12. Gabriel Passos 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A. 21. Morgado T. 5. Brasido D. 8. Gomes Tavares D. 17. Horta Leitao D. 27. Barros E. 9. Pereira R. 29. Ekanga Ondoa H. O.	41. Diego Callai (G) 45. Moreira D. 43. Muniz J. 76. Blopa S. 53. Dias R. 81. Arreiol H. 55. Silva J. 88. Mendonca M. 78. Couto M. 90. Moreira A. 77. Besugo R.
Substitutes
26. Acosta Pinerez C. A. 16. Carvalho R. 13. Cuca 6. Maria G. 24. Neto T. (G) 11. Sambu M. 15. Tavares J. 19. Triana C.	40. Arvelo A. 80. Gomes L. 58. Goncalves F. 59. Kaua Oliveira 79. Marques R. 51. Pinto D. (G) 71. Santos D. 82. Silva G. 95. Taibo Dominguez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Brasido D. 🟨,
38', Besugo R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', Gomes Tavares D. ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
63', Ekanga Ondoa H. O. ↓, Acosta Pinerez C. A. ↑,
69', Couto M. ↓, Kaua Oliveira ↑,
69', Mendonca M. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
69', Besugo R. ↓, Goncalves F. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Pinto A. ⚽, Morgado T. (A),
77', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Fernandes X. ↑,
77', Blopa S. ↓, Santos D. ↑,
77', Arreiol H. ↓, Gomes L. ↑,
86', Silva G. 🟨,
86', Pereira R. ↓, Triana C. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Muniz J. ⚽,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Belenenses will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:5 (average 1.2:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Belenenses won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
13.04.25	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Atlético CP - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
29.03.25	Lusitânia - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Belenenses - Amarante	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Fafe - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTLTW
- Sporting Lisbon B
Portuguese Liga 3
13.04.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Amarante - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1 ✺
English Premier League International Cup
17.03.25	Fulham U21 - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Fafe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	1:3
18.01.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	2:1
06.10.24	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1
05.02.23	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	0:1
21.10.22	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1

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