Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 14

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.25	3.8
	1.87	3.25	3.85
	1.79	3.61	4.49
	1.9	3.28	4.29	Watch
	1.87	3.2	3.98
	1.87	3.25	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.13)	3.31 ↑ (2.99)	4.04 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
49.6%

Draw
27.7%

Lusitânia
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

30.7%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

29.6%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Belenenses's performance.

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Belenenses - Lusitânia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Grilo D. (G) 5. Brasido D. 4. Nuno Tomas 39. Pinto A. 27. Barros E. 15. Tavares J. 20. Paulo D. 17. Horta Leitao D. 21. Morgado T. 11. Sambu M. 9. Pereira R.	1. Cioletti G. (G) 28. Mesquita T. 3. Silverio (C) 14. Valente M. 5. Oliveira J. 4. Collard D. 8. Tokinho Doria 12. Arsenio 88. Teixeira M. 11. Pereira M. 21. Joao Vasco
Substitutes
26. Acosta Pinerez C. A. 16. Carvalho R. 13. Cuca 29. Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 23. Fernandes X. 6. Maria G. 24. Neto T. (G) 19. Triana C. 14. Varela J.	7. Avto 85. Castro D. 29. Cerveira T. 20. Faria R. 6. Martins H. 18. Pereira D. 80. Renato Luis 10. Ribeiro S. 41. Ricardo M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Pereira R. (Pen),
30', 1 - 1, Joao Vasco ⚽, Pereira M. (A),
35', Arsenio 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', 🟨,
62', 🟨,
62', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Ekanga Ondoa H. O. ↑,
64', 🟨,
65', Arsenio ↓, Ribeiro S. ↑,
65', Joao Vasco ↓, Avto ↑,
66', Mesquita T. ↓, Castro D. ↑,
71', Tavares J. ↓, Cuca ↑,
71', Teixeira M. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
75', 🟨,
84', Tokinho Doria ↓, Martins H. ↑,
87', 🟨,
87', Pinto A. ↓, Carvalho R. ↑,
87', Morgado T. ↓, Acosta Pinerez C. A. ↑,
87', Sambu M. ↓, Fernandes X. ↑,
90+4', Martins H. 🟨,

Preview

Lusitânia is Qualified for Liga Portugal 2

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, Belenenses is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Belenenses won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
10.05.25	Amarante - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
04.05.25	Belenenses - Fafe	3:2 ✺
26.04.25	Varzim - Belenenses	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWTTW
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
10.05.25	Lusitânia - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
03.05.25	Lusitânia - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Amarante - Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Lusitânia - Fafe	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
29.03.25	Lusitânia - Belenenses	1:0

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