Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday

Location: CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira (Alcochete)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Sporting Lisbon B		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.3
	2.95	3.1	2.29
	2.94	3.15	2.54
	3.22	3.16	2.28	Watch
	3.26	3.26	2.19
	2.95	3.1	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.84)	3.13 ↑ (3)	2.32 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon B
30.6%

Draw
29.5%

Fafe
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

30.6%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

30%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Fafe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Sporting Lisbon B - Fafe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Diego Callai (G) 95. Taibo Dominguez L. 43. Muniz J. 45. Moreira D. 53. Dias R. 77. Besugo R. 78. Couto M. 88. Mendonca M. 67. Anjos L. 58. Goncalves F. 86. Nel R.	98. Alves C. (G) 21. Pereira M. 4. Teixeira L. 26. Batista J. 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. 8. Braga V. 17. Goncalves R. 7. Leite T. 9. Kodama R. 11. Picas
Substitutes
40. Arvelo A. 60. Balde A. 80. Gomes L. 59. Kaua Oliveira 79. Marques R. 90. Moreira A. 74. Pires G. (G) 65. Silva G. 82. Silva G.	22. Bruninho 1. Enes Guimaraes F. (G) 12. Farias E. 6. Lucas Vital 44. Morais B. 5. Nandinho 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 10. Serra Matos P. M. 2. Sousa B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Teixeira L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nel R. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
58', Anjos L. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
58', Goncalves F. ↓, Gomes L. ↑,
64', Kodama R. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
64', Picas ↓, Serra Matos P. M. ↑,
79', Moreira D. 🟨,
82', Batista J. 🟨,
82', Moreira A. 🟨,
89', Goncalves R. ↓, Farias E. ↑,
89', Braga V. ↓, Ribeiro Oliveira J. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 (Promotion: ) and 4).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Sporting B won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:6 (average 1:3).

Including matches at home between the teams Sporting B won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon B
Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.25	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	3:0 ✺
22.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	1:3 ✺
16.02.25	Atlético CP - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0 ✺
07.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TWLTW
- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.25	Fafe - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
02.03.25	Atlético CP - Fafe	4:0 ✺
22.02.25	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Amarante - Fafe	1:3 ✺
09.02.25	Fafe - 1 Dezembro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.01.17	Fafe - Sporting Lisbon B	2:0
20.08.16	Sporting Lisbon B - Fafe	2:4

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