Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Fafe		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.3
	1.99	3.2	3.5
	2.04	3.26	3.91
	2.04	3.22	3.78	Watch
	1.94	3.25	3.62
	1.99	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.82)	3.22 ↓ (3.36)	3.6 ↓ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
46.1%

Draw
28.5%

Belenenses
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

27.3%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

26.2%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fafe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Fafe - Belenenses Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fafe will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Belenenses will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Alves C. (G) 21. Pereira M. 4. Teixeira L. 26. Batista J. 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 12. Farias E. 8. Braga V. 10. Serra Matos P. M. 7. Leite T.	22. Grilo D. (G) 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A. 4. Nuno Tomas 13. Cuca (C) 21. Morgado T. 5. Brasido D. 15. Tavares J. 27. Barros E. 9. Pereira R. 19. Triana C.
Substitutes
22. Bruninho 1. Enes Guimaraes F. (G) 17. Goncalves R. 9. Kodama R. 6. Lucas Vital 44. Morais B. 5. Nandinho 11. Picas 2. Sousa B.	3. Barbosa A. 16. Carvalho R. 29. Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 12. Gabriel Passos 8. Gomes Tavares D. 17. Horta Leitao D. 6. Maria G. 24. Neto T. (G) 14. Varela J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Cardoso F. 🟨,
60', Tavares J. ↓, Gomes Tavares D. ↑,
60', Pereira R. 🟨,
61', Triana C. ↓, Ekanga Ondoa H. O. ↑,
62', Ribeiro Oliveira J. ↓, Picas ↑,
62', Farias E. ↓, Goncalves R. ↑,
62', Vigario J. 🟨,
72', 0 - 1, Nuno Tomas ⚽,
75', Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 🟨,
81', Serra Matos P. M. ↓, Kodama R. ↑,
81', Pereira M. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
82', Paulo D. ↓, Carvalho R. ↑,
87', Cardoso F. ↓, Lucas Vital ↑,

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Fafe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Fafe will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
02.03.25	Atlético CP - Fafe	4:0 ✺
22.02.25	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Amarante - Fafe	1:3 ✺
09.02.25	Fafe - 1 Dezembro	3:1 ✺
26.01.25	Fafe - Anadia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWWT
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.25	Belenenses - Varzim	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	1:3 ✺
15.02.25	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	3:1 ✺
07.02.25	Belenenses - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWLTT

Fafe - Belenenses: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide