Match Info

ARGENTINA: LIGA PROFESIONAL - ROUND 19

Date: 3 June 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra (Cordoba)

Referee: Mastrangelo H. (Arg)


	Belgrano		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	3.2
	2.5	2.87	3.1
	2.45	3.05	3.2
	2.53	2.93	3.37
	2.4	2.9	3.2
	2.42	3.02	3.2	Watch
	2.46	2.9	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.52)	2.95 ↑ (2.9)	3.2 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belgrano
38.5%

Draw
32%

Vélez Sársfield
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

32.4%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

32.4%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belgrano than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	42.9%	7.1%

Belgrano - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Belgrano will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Vélez will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Belgrano: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Losada N. (G) 4. Barinaga J. 6. Rebola A. 13. Meriano N. 22. Ibacache A. 23. Pereira G. 12. Sanchez U. 5. Longo S. 10. Zapelli B. 11. Hesar I. 9. Vegetti P. (C)	1. Gomez G. (G) 24. Guidara T. 28. Brizuela M. 2. Godin D. 5. Ortega F. 32. Ordonez C. 34. Fernandez D. 7. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 33. Cabrera E. 14. Lobato L. 12. Pratto L. (C)
Substitutes
17. Amaya A. 30. Barrea D. 7. Bordagaray F. 36. Castro T. 8. Compagnucci G. 3. Diarte L. 29. Jara F. 2. Novaretti D. 16. Ramirez I. 32. Rojas A. 19. Susvielles J. 1. Vicentini M. (G)	10. Bou W. 22. Burian L. (G) 9. Castro S. 18. Fernandez J. 8. Garayalde N. 31. Gomez V. 11. Janson L. 29. Jara L. 19. Osorio A. 23. Pernicone P. 42. Prestianni G. 26. Seoane M.
Coaches
Farre G.	Gareca R.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 22).

Belgrano has the most likely position - 10 (9.28%), project points - 39, currently - 28, a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Vélez has the most likely position - 17 (6.13%), project points - 33, currently - 18, a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 37, very small importance 0, small match rating 19. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Belgrano won 2.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Vélez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Belgrano: Oliver F. (Injury) Tapia I. (Injury)

There will not play in Vélez: Caseres S. (Injury) Cavanagh T. (Injury) Mendez J. (Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Belgrano won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 17-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Belgrano won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Belgrano de Cordoba
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.05.23	Platense - Belgrano	1:0 ✺
21.05.23	Belgrano - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
14.05.23	Boca Juniors - Belgrano	2:0 ✺
06.05.23	Belgrano - Atlético Tucumán	1:0 ✺
30.04.23	Independiente - Belgrano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLWL
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.05.23	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	2:2 ✺
15.05.23	Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central	0:0 ✺
07.05.23	Estudiantes La Plata - Vélez Sársfield	2:0 ✺
29.04.23	Vélez Sársfield - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
21.04.23	Colón - Vélez Sársfield	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.10.18	Vélez Sársfield - Belgrano	1:0
16.02.18	Belgrano - Vélez Sársfield	2:2
08.05.17	Vélez Sársfield - Belgrano	1:2
19.03.16	Belgrano - Vélez Sársfield	2:3
21.03.15	Vélez Sársfield - Belgrano	1:2
14.09.14	Belgrano - Vélez Sársfield	1:0
08.03.14	Vélez Sársfield - Belgrano	3:1

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