Match Info

URUGUAY: SEGUNDA DIVISION - ROUND 4

Date: 28 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio José Nasazzi (Montevideo)


	Bella Vista		Progreso

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.9	1.44
	6	3.9	1.45
	5.96	3.94	1.51
	6	3.8	1.44
	6.15	4.1	1.47	Watch
	6.4	4.1	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.04 ↑ (4.58)	3.96 ↑ (3.51)	1.46 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bella Vista
15%

Draw
22.9%

Progreso
62.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

26%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

25.6%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bella Vista has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Progreso's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bella Vista than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Progreso, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Bella Vista - Progreso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Bella Vista is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Progreso in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Bella Vista could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Progreso is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Bella Vista won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Bella Vista won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Bella Vista
Uruguayan Segunda Division
21.05.23	Uruguay Montevideo - Bella Vista	1:0 ✺
14.05.23	Bella Vista - Albion Montevideo	1:5 ✺
06.05.23	Sud América - Bella Vista	1:0 ✺
23.04.23	Rentistas - Bella Vista	2:0 ✺
09.04.23	Bella Vista - Cerrito	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Segunda Division
21.05.23	Progreso - Rentistas	3:1 ✺
13.05.23	Miramar Misiones - Progreso	2:2 ✺
06.05.23	Progreso - Tacuarembó	3:2 ✺
29.04.23	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:5 ✺
22.04.23	Progreso - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
24.03.13	Progreso - Bella Vista	2:2
29.09.12	Bella Vista - Progreso	3:1

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