Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 1

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Parque Artigas (Las Piedras)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Juventud de Las Piedras		Progreso

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.02	3.2	3.5
	2.09	3.37	3.8
	2.08	3.18	3.71
	2.05	3.1	3.5
	2.04	3.28	3.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (2.05)	3.22 ↑ (3.21)	3.61 ↓ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventud de Las Piedras
45.4%

Draw
28.9%

Progreso
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

28.9%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

27.4%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Juventud de Las Piedras have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventud de Las Piedras than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Progreso (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Progreso (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Progreso (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Juventud de Las Piedras will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Progreso (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sosa S. (C) 5. Morosini D. 28. Risso F. 23. Mas E. 19. Cecchini E. 22. Chagas R. 21. Perez F. 37. Peralta R. 26. Pereiro G. 80. Mimbacas F. 15. Cruz A.	1. Mehring A. (G) 15. Martin M. 3. Garcia F. 13. Carroso H. 27. Silva G. 5. Pinheiro A. 8. Colombino A. (C) 10. Lemmo I. 11. Lopez N. 29. Fernandez N. 23. Copelotti M.
Substitutes
24. Barrandeguy F. 27. Boselli J. 4. Caceres M. 30. Gomez G. 8. Izaguirre M. 10. Larregui B. 9. Perez M. 18. Rodriguez M. 12. Rossi N. (G) 20. Sanchez R.	6. Andueza F. 30. Codagnone A. 40. Cougo A. 25. Dos Santos J. 14. Kidd F. 33. Requena A. (G) 93. Sanchez D. 18. Silva G. 16. Trasante G. 24. Viera S.
Coaches
Blanco Soto S. R.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Cruz A. ⚽,
34', 2 - 0, Pereiro G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lemmo I. ↓, Dos Santos J. ↑,
46', Copelotti M. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
46', Garcia F. ↓, Trasante G. ↑,
52', Cruz A. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
61', Pereiro G. ↓, Gomez G. ↑,
61', Mimbacas F. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
61', Perez F. ↓, Barrandeguy F. ↑,
62', Dos Santos J. 🟨,
63', Morosini D. 🟨,
73', Lopez N. 🟨,
75', Lopez N. ↓, Codagnone A. ↑,
79', Peralta R. ↓, Larregui B. ↑,
84', Sanchez D. 🟨,
86', Martin M. ↓, Cougo A. ↑,
88', Chagas R. 🟨,
90+1', Colombino A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventud won 3.

Juventud is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Progreso's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Progreso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Juventud has had a series of home games.

Juventud could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Juventud will win today's game, with odds of 2.04.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Juventud won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Juventud won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.2:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Juventud	9	3	5	1	10:6	4	14
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Juventud de Las Piedras - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.43%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juventud de Las Piedras
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.05.26	Defensor Sporting - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Academia Puerto Cabello	4:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WTWWT
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Progreso - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
27.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
12.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:0
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
18.01.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	0:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.11.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:1
29.06.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	2:0
18.05.25	Progreso - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2
Uruguayan Segunda Division
18.11.23	Progreso - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1
07.07.23	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:1

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