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Current Win Probability
Benfica 24.3%
Draw 23.4%
Paris Saint-Germain 52.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
22.4%
22.5%
55.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
22.9%
23%
53.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)
Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
19.4%
6.8%
73.8%
Benfica - Paris Saint Germain Predictions
Users Predictions:
191 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 37 - 19.4%). PSG will win (votes: 141 - 73.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 6.8%). Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 67.6% – 80%.The data is statistically significant.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Preview
Benfica has currently - 6, has a chance of 1st (26%), has a good chance of 2nd (68%), has a small chance of 3rd (7%), has a good chance of round of 16 (93%), has a chance of qtrs (37%), has a small chance of semis (14%), has a very small chance of final (5%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).
PSG has currently - 6, has a good chance of 1st (74%), has a chance of 2nd (25%), has a very small chance of 3rd (1%), has a very good chance of round of 16 (99%), has a good chance of qtrs (68%), has a chance of semis (43%), has a chance of final (24%), has a small chance of win league (13%).
This event has big quality84, small importance27, match rating56. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Benfica is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
PSG is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).
Benfica could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Recently Benfica have a series of guest games.
In this match PSG is a favorite.
There will not play in Benfica: Lucas Verissimo
(Knee Injury)
Morato
(Ankle Injury)
There will not play in PSG: Kimpembe P.
(Muscle Injury)
Pembele T.
(Knee Injury)
Sanches R.
(Groin Injury)
Last 3 head-to-head matches Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-7.
Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.
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