Match Info

League Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	ZAP
Argentina	17:45	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Chile	17:45	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	15:45	DAZN, DirecTV Sports
Norway	21:45	VG+
Peru	15:45	DirecTV Sports
South America	—	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	17:45	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
Venezuela	16:45	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Benfica		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.30	5.50	8.50
	1.25	5.75	9.00
	1.22	7.49	13.29
	1.29	5.9	9.4	Watch
	1.19	7.40	13.00
	1.22	7.21	12.00	Watch
	1.20	6.60	10.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.51)	6.55 ↑ (4.83)	10.74 ↑ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
76.7%

Draw
14.5%

Gil Vicente
8.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.4%

19.5%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

18.7%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica's performance.

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gil Vicente might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gil Vicente could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Benfica - Gil Vicente Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2 - Gil Vicente (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 1 - 50%). Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 26. Dahl S. 3. Circati A. 2. Lenglet C. (C) 34. El Karouani S. 36. Palhinha J. 10. Sudakov G. 11. Lukebakio D. 30. Echeverri C. 21. Schjelderup A. 22. Duran J.	94. Samuel Portugal (G) 47. Esgaio R. 3. Espigares A. 39. Buatu J. (C) 45. Moreira D. 6. Ze Carlos 19. Guilherme Gomes 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Garcia S. 20. Pinto Martins G. 99. Kaba M.
Substitutes
72. Anisio 44. Araujo T. 8. Aursnes F. 6. Bah A. 55. Fonseca J. 88. Freitas T. 13. Kaminski J. 16. Manu Silva 14. Pavlidis V. 25. Prestianni G. 27. Rafa Silva 24. Soares S. (G)	17. Bermejo S. 11. Fernandes J. 32. Fernandez M. 15. Gning M. 12. Lausen A. 30. Lucao (G) 82. Maia G. 27. Moreira A. 1. Picornell A. (G) 2. Silva J. 7. Toure T. 9. Walace Franca
Coaches
Silva M.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Lukebakio D. ⚽, Dahl S. (A),
40', 2 - 0, Sudakov G. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Pinto Martins G. ↓, Toure T. ↑,
46', Guilherme Gomes ↓, Lausen A. ↑,
54', 3 - 0, Lukebakio D. ⚽,
56', 3 - 1, Lausen A. ⚽, Toure T. (A),
63', Murilo de Souza ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
63', Kaba M. ↓, Walace Franca ↑,
67', Palhinha J. 🟨,
72', Schjelderup A. ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
72', Palhinha J. ↓, Manu Silva ↑,
72', Sudakov G. ↓, Aursnes F. ↑,
77', Aursnes F. 🟨,
78', Echeverri C. ↓, Rafa Silva ↑,
80', Moreira D. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
81', 4 - 1, Duran J. ⚽, Rafa Silva (A),
82', Espigares A. 🟥,
84', Duran J. ↓, Anisio ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 5.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Gil Vicente could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, Benfica enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Benfica in today's match, at odds of 1.31.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Benfica has recorded 17 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 48:12 (averaging 2.4:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Benfica against this opponent, the record stands at 9 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 27:8 goals (averaging 2.5:0.7 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
26.10.26	Santa Clara - Benfica	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.10.26	Omonia - Benfica	1:4 ✺
15.10.26	Benfica - Celtic	4:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
11.10.26	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Porto - Benfica	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWWL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
24.10.26	Gil Vicente - Porto	0:1 ✺
19.10.26	Braga - Gil Vicente	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
14.10.26	União de Santarém - Gil Vicente	2:3 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
09.10.26	Moreirense - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Gil Vicente - Marítimo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.09.26	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:1
02.03.26	Gil Vicente - Benfica	1:2
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1
28.03.25	Gil Vicente - Benfica	0:3
28.09.24	Benfica - Gil Vicente	5:1
04.02.24	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:0
26.08.23	Gil Vicente - Benfica	2:3

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