Match Info

Premier League - First stage - Main - Round 9

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola) 🌤️ ...


	Birżebbuġa St. Peters		Marsaxlokk

	1	X	2
	5.00	3.75	1.53
	5.4	3.85	1.48
	5.16	3.95	1.47
	5.4	3.96	1.54	Watch
	5.1	3.7	1.44
	4.89	4.12	1.58
	5.6	4	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.22 ↑ (4.29)	3.9 ↓ (4.06)	1.51 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birżebbuġa St. Peters
17.2%

Draw
23%

Marsaxlokk
59.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.5%

22.7%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

21.7%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birżebbuġa St. Peters has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Marsaxlokk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birżebbuġa St. Peters than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Marsaxlokk Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Birżebbuġa will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Marsaxlokk will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Birżebbuġa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chiesa M. (G) 29. Alex Bruno (C) 4. Azzopardi M. 25. Bolanos Ramirez J. A. 21. Bondin K. 20. Costa Goncalves G. 2. Gustavo Felipe 98. Mendoza J. 88. Scerri Z. 18. Thellufsen R. 10. Yuri	22. Mafoumbi C. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 8. Arias U. 10. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 20. Garcia M. 9. Linden R. 28. Mihana R. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E.
Substitutes
. Azzopardi J. (G) . Barbara A. . Camenzuli A. . Camenzuli D. . Cassar Z. . Galea F. . Grioli E. . Riascos L. . Tokic S. . Tomaselli P. . Xuereb M.	14. Attard E. 30. Carabott Z. (G) 24. Caruana L. 23. Caruana T. 1. Cassar A. (G) 11. Corbalan J. C. 16. Karamitsios G. 26. Maniscalco M. 33. Simkus D. 17. Smajlagic S. 3. Weder
Coaches
Santana L.	Potenza V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 1 - 0, Alex Bruno ⚽,
62', Dodo ↓, Smajlagic S. ↑,
64', Costa Goncalves G. 🟨,
65', Muscat N. 🟨,
69', Muscat N. ↓, Caruana L. ↑,
69', Minala J. ↓, Simkus D. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Costa Goncalves G. ⚽,
71', Azzopardi M. ↓, Cassar Z. ↑,
79', Costa Goncalves G. ↓, Tokic S. ↑,
80', Garcia M. ↓, Caruana T. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 12th in the Premier League (First stage - Play Out: ) and 2nd in the Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6: )).

Birżebbuġa is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Marsaxlokk shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Birżebbuġa may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Marsaxlokk holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Marsaxlokk	10	5	2	3	16:14	2	17
12	Birzebbuga ✔	10	1	2	7	7:19	-12	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birżebbuġa St. Peters
Maltese Premier League
18.10.26	Paola Hibernians - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	1:0 ✺
09.10.26	Mosta - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	2:2 ✺
19.09.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Valletta	0:3 ✺
11.09.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Hamrun Spartans	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Balzan - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
16.10.26	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Marsaxlokk - Żabbar St. Patrick	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	2:5 ✺
05.09.26	Marsaxlokk - Mosta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLWT

Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Marsaxlokk