Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 2

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Israel	Sport 1
Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Grêmio		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.4	Watch
	2.32	3.05	3.2
	2.37	3.23	3.45
	2.25	2.88	3.68	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.1
	2.49	3.06	3.31	Watch
	2.28	3.2	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.02)	3.05 ↓ (3.25)	3.35 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
40.7%

Draw
31.1%

Botafogo RJ
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.7%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

30.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	14.3%	21.4%

Grêmio - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Botafogo will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 50%). Botafogo (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Botafogo (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Botafogo (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Botafogo (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 18. Joao Pedro 2. Fabian Balbuena 3. Wagner Leonardo 23. Marlon 19. Noriega E. 29. Arthur Melo (C) 21. Tete 11. Monsalve M. 7. Pavon C. 95. Carlos Vinicius	22. Neto (G) 4. Ponte M. 28. Newton 20. Barboza A. 2. Vitinho 8. Danilo 25. Allan 13. Alex Telles (C) 23. Rodriguez S. 19. Arthur Cabral 10. Montoro A.
Substitutes
9. Amuzu F. 77. Andre Henrique 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 8. Edenilson 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 53. Gustavo Martins 14. Marcos Rocha 47. Roger 44. Viery 88. Willian	48. Arthur Novaes 7. Artur 14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 15. Bastos 36. Gabriel Abdias 42. Kadu Santos 59. Kauan Toledo 24. Leo Linck (G) 64. Marquinhos 11. Matheus Martins 16. Nathan Fernandes
Coaches
Castro L.	Anselmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', Barboza A. 🟨,
16', Anselmi M. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Arthur Cabral ⚽, Barboza A. (A),
19', Rodriguez S. ↓, Artur ↑,
26', 1 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽,
36', 1 - 2, Danilo ⚽, Montoro A. (A),
45+3', Monsalve M. ↓, Willian ↑,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Pavon C. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
50', 2 - 2, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Amuzu F. (A),
53', Ponte M. 🟨,
57', 3 - 2, Carlos Vinicius (Penalty Awarded),
60', 4 - 2, Tete ⚽, Amuzu F. (A),
61', Montoro A. ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
62', Ponte M. ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
68', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
68', Tete ↓, Edenilson ↑,
70', Allan 🟨,
79', 5 - 2, Edenilson ⚽,
82', Artur ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
82', Allan ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
86', 5 - 3, Danilo ⚽, Barboza A. (A),
90+2', Arthur Melo ↓, Dodi ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Botafogo has had a series of home games.

Grêmio is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury) Walter Kannemann (Inactive)

There will not play in Botafogo: Correa J. (Inactive) Ramos C. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 33:21. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.7:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 46.14%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
31.01.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
25.01.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	4:2 ✺
21.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Grêmio	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Grêmio - São Luiz	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLLWW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
24.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0 ✺
21.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
22.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2
24.09.25	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	1:1
28.09.24	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	0:0
16.06.24	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	1:2
09.11.23	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:4
09.07.23	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	0:2
08.02.21	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	2:5

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