Match Info

ARGENTINA: Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 11 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV
Argentina	TNT Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	SI Solo Calcio
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, TyC Sports Internacional


	Boca Juniors		Independiente Rivadavia

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	5.75	Watch
	1.75	3.25	5.35	Watch
	1.74	3.45	6.16
	1.71	3.44	5.74	Watch
	1.73	3.45	5.45	Watch
	1.75	3.25	5.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.71)	3.37 ↓ (3.4)	5.63 ↑ (5.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

Watch this match and Argentinian Liga Profesional with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: TyC Sports

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
54.9%

Draw
28.2%

Independiente Rivadavia
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

27.7%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

29.1%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Independiente Rivadavia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	23.1%	23.1%

Boca Juniors - Independiente Rivadavia Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Independiente R will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boca Juniors: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Marchesin A. (G) 24. Barinaga J. 5. Battaglia R. 32. Costa A. 3. Saracchi M. 30. Belmonte T. 38. Rey Domenech C. 15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 20. Velasco A. 9. Gimenez M. 16. Miguel Merentiel (C)	1. Centurion E. (G) 4. Peinipil M. 40. Villalba I. 42. Studer S. 14. Gomez L. 21. Cardillo M. 5. Bottari T. 25. Amarfil M. 8. Sequeira L. 7. Ramis V. 22. Villa S. (C)
Substitutes
17. Advincula L. 33. Aguirre B. 23. Blanco L. 12. Brey L. (G) 51. Dalmasso S. 40. Di Lollo L. 11. Janson L. 19. Martegani A. 34. Mendia M. 14. Miramon I. 53. Ruiz J. 7. Zeballos E.	44. Amato F. 20. Barbieri J. 2. Costa L. 26. Fernandez M. 6. Flores S. 12. Lastra A. (G) 34. Retamar K. 43. Sartori F. 19. Schwartz M. 27. Souto P. 11. Tonetto D. 31. Valenti M.
Coaches
Gago F.	Berti A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Costa A. 🟨,
19', Belmonte T. ↓, Di Lollo L. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Velasco A. 🟨,
51', 1 - 0, Miguel Merentiel ⚽,
58', Villalba I. 🟨,
58', Di Lollo L. 🟨,
65', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Ruiz J. ↑,
65', Velasco A. ↓, Zeballos E. ↑,
66', Cardillo M. ↓, Barbieri J. ↑,
66', Ramis V. ↓, Retamar K. ↑,
78', Barinaga J. ↓, Advincula L. ↑,
79', Sequeira L. ↓, Sartori F. ↑,
81', Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 🟨,
83', 2 - 0, Zeballos E. ⚽,
84', Amarfil M. ↓, Tonetto D. ↑,
84', Bottari T. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
90+2', Fernandez M. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Recent matches Boca Juniors is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Independiente R is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Independiente R could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Boca Juniors is a favorite.

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Herrera A. (Muscle Injury) Lema C. (Injury) Romero S. (Knee Injury) Zenon K. (Red Card)

There will not play in Independiente R: Marinelli G. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Boca Juniors: Rojo M. (Tendon Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Boca Juniors won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.02.25	Racing - Boca Juniors	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Boca Juniors - Huracán Buenos Aires	2:1 ✺
29.01.25	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Boca Juniors - Argentinos Juniors	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
22.01.25	Boca Juniors - Argentino Monte Maíz	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWTTW
- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
07.02.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Estudiantes La Plata	2:2 ✺
03.02.25	Belgrano - Independiente Rivadavia	0:3 ✺
28.01.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Barracas Central	0:0 ✺
23.01.25	Newells Old Boys - Independiente Rivadavia	0:1 ✺
16.12.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo Riestra	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.08.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Boca Juniors	1:1

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