Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio 15 de Abril (Santa Fe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports, TNT Sports Premium
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
Israel	Sport 1
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	Disney+
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Unión Santa Fe		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.85	2.5	3	Watch
	2.75	2.8	2.8
	2.88	2.68	2.92
	2.97	2.7	3.08
	2.94	2.73	2.89
	2.9	2.5	2.8
	3.21	2.59	2.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.81)	2.64 ↓ (2.94)	2.91 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Santa Fe
32.1%

Draw
35.6%

Boca Juniors
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

31.6%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

31.8%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boca Juniors: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Boca Juniors (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Mansilla M. (G) 35. Vargas L. 2. Rodriguez M. 26. Luduena J. 11. Del Blanco M. 20. Palacios J. 30. Pitton M. (C) 24. Profini R. 22. Cuello B. 25. Tarragona C. 19. Estigarribia M.	1. Marchesin A. (G) 23. Weigandt M. 2. Di Lollo L. 32. Costa A. 3. Blanco L. 5. Paredes L. (C) 25. Ascacibar S. 18. Delgado M. 36. Aranda T. 16. Miguel Merentiel 28. Bareiro A.
Substitutes
31. Aguirre M. 4. Alvarez E. 9. Colazo A. 29. Diaz D. 13. Fascendini V. 7. Fragapane F. 43. Giaccone E. 46. Grella S. 5. Menossi L. 40. Meuli L. (G) 12. Pitton B. 23. Solari A.	15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 24. Barinaga J. 27. Braida M. 12. Brey L. (G) 4. Figal J. 21. Herrera A. 11. Janson L. 26. Pellegrino M. 38. Rey Domenech C. 20. Velasco A. 22. Zenon K. 41. Zufiaurre I.
Coaches
Madelon L.	Ubeda C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Aranda T. 🟨,
25', Cuello B. 🟨,
30', Ascacibar S. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Palacios J. ⚽, Profini R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Ascacibar S. ↓, Herrera A. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Miguel Merentiel ⚽,
58', Palacios J. 🟨,
68', Cuello B. ↓, Aguirre M. ↑,
71', Estigarribia M. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
75', Costa A. 🟨,
79', Aranda T. ↓, Velasco A. ↑,
84', Palacios J. ↓, Grella S. ↑,
87', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Braida M. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión won 1.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Recently, Boca Juniors has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Unión: Colazo A. (Inactive) Paz N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Angel Romero (Injury) Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Belmonte T. (Inactive) Carlos Palacios (Knee Injury) Cavani E. (Lower Back Injury) Gimenez M. (Groin Injury) Velasco A. (Knee Injury) Zeballos E. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Unión: Del Blanco M. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Unión won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.8:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Unión Santa Fe - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33.03%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Santa Fe
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.03.26	Independiente - Unión Santa Fe	4:4 ✺
01.03.26	Instituto Córdoba - Unión Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
26.02.26	Sarmiento de Junín - Unión Santa Fe	1:3 ✺
22.02.26	Unión Santa Fe - Aldosivi	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Unión Santa Fe - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWWWT
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.03.26	Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Lanús - Boca Juniors	0:3 ✺
28.02.26	Boca Juniors - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	1:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
24.02.26	Boca Juniors - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.02.26	Boca Juniors - Racing	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.07.25	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	1:1
29.01.25	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	1:1
20.11.24	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
06.03.24	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	1:0
20.10.23	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	2:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.07.23	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	0:0
24.06.22	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	1:2

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