Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Zunino S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	ESPN Premium
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 5 Norte
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV7
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Boca Juniors		Platense

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	6	Watch
	1.65	3.5	5.8	Watch
	1.68	3.56	6.18
	1.67	3.49	5.98	Watch
	1.62	3.3	5.75
	1.67	3.36	5.86	Watch
	1.66	3.5	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.43)	3.44 ↓ (3.63)	5.9 ↓ (8.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
56.8%

Draw
27.3%

Platense
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

25.3%

10.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66%

24.6%

10.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Boca Juniors's form might have worsened.

Platense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Platense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boca Juniors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Platense than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Platense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Boca Juniors - Platense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Platense will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boca Juniors: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Boca Juniors (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchesin A. (G) 24. Barinaga J. 2. Di Lollo L. 32. Costa A. 3. Blanco L. 25. Ascacibar S. 5. Paredes L. (C) 15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 29. Angel Romero 16. Miguel Merentiel 11. Janson L.	20. Borgogno M. (G) 25. Saborido J. 13. Vazquez I. (C) 6. Raggio E. 3. Silva T. 17. Bussio F. 15. Amarfil M. 7. Mainero G. 10. Zapiola F. 33. Gauto J. 23. Heredia L.
Substitutes
36. Aranda T. 30. Belmonte T. 27. Braida M. 12. Brey L. (G) 10. Cavani E. 18. Delgado M. 4. Figal J. 37. Gelini G. 26. Pellegrino M. 23. Weigandt M. 22. Zenon K. 41. Zufiaurre I.	24. Barrios M. 27. Dalmasso S. 38. Ingenthron C. 4. Lagos A. 99. Lencina G. 34. Mendia M. 18. Merlini B. 9. Nasif T. 43. Retamar K. 22. Sumavil N. (G) 28. Tucker M. 31. Victor Cuesta
Coaches
Ubeda C.	Zunino W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Di Lollo L. 🟨,
45', Heredia L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Janson L. ↓, Aranda T. ↑,
61', Heredia L. ↓, Nasif T. ↑,
61', Amarfil M. ↓, Barrios M. ↑,
65', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Cavani E. ↑,
66', Angel Romero ↓, Gelini G. ↑,
66', Barinaga J. ↓, Weigandt M. ↑,
78', Mainero G. ↓, Retamar K. ↑,
78', Zapiola F. ↓, Dalmasso S. ↑,
84', Paredes L. ↓, Delgado M. ↑,
86', Gauto J. ↓, Lagos A. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 3.

Boca Juniors has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Platense is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Boca Juniors is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Palacios (Knee Injury) Cavani E. (Back Injury) Gimenez M. (Thigh Injury) Herrera A. (Inactive) Janson L. (Muscle Injury) Velasco A. (Knee Injury) Zeballos E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Platense: Bay J. (Knee Injury) Bobadilla H. (Muscle Injury) Gomez I. (Muscle Injury) Goni G. (Muscle Injury) Minerva F. (Muscle Injury) Ocampo A. (Inactive) Portillo M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Boca Juniors won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.02.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Boca Juniors - Newells Old Boys	2:0 ✺
28.01.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Boca Juniors	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Boca Juniors - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
18.01.26	Boca Juniors - Olimpia Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWW
- CA Platense
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.02.26	Platense - Independiente	0:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
04.02.26	Platense - Argentino Monte Maíz	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
31.01.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Platense	1:2 ✺
26.01.26	Platense - Instituto Córdoba	2:1 ✺
22.01.26	Unión Santa Fe - Platense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.06.24	Platense - Boca Juniors	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
27.01.24	Platense - Boca Juniors	0:0
18.08.23	Boca Juniors - Platense	3:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.02.23	Boca Juniors - Platense	3:1
06.08.22	Boca Juniors - Platense	2:1
25.08.21	Platense - Boca Juniors	1:3

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