Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Collu G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football
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Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
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Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
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Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
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Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Sooka
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Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
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Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Bologna		Genoa

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.88	4.1	Watch
	2.18	2.88	4.15	Watch
	2.16	3.05	4.55
	2.43	2.32	4.49	Watch
	2.14	2.96	4.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.76)	2.82 ↓ (3.45)	4.34 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
43.6%

Draw
34.2%

Genoa
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

27.6%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

27.2%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bologna's form might have worsened.

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bologna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Bologna - Genoa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Genoa (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Genoa (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Bologna (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bologna will win (24 of 27 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.04% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 5 - 50%). Genoa (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Skorupski L. (G) 29. De Silvestri L. (C) 41. Vitik M. 14. Heggem T. 33. Miranda J. 8. Freuler R. 6. Moro N. 7. Orsolini R. 10. Bernardeschi F. 30. Dominguez B. 9. Castro S.	1. Leali N. (G) 15. Norton-Cuffy B. 5. Ostigard L. 22. Vasquez J. (C) 3. Martin A. 32. Frendrup M. 73. Masini P. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 17. Malinovskyi R. 9. Vitinha 29. Colombo L.
Substitutes
28. Cambiaghi N. 24. Dallinga T. 80. Fabbian G. 19. Ferguson L. 2. Holm E. 26. Lucumi J. 22. Lykogiannis C. 21. Odgaard J. 25. Pessina M. (G) 13. Ravaglia F. (G) 11. Rowe J. 20. Zortea N.	23. Carboni V. 30. Cuenca Martinez H. F. 21. Ekhator J. 18. Ekuban C. 40. Fini S. 11. Gronbaek A. 10. Junior Messias 35. Lysionok E. (G) 27. Marcandalli A. 34. Otoa S. 20. Sabelli S. 39. Sommariva D. (G) 8. Stanciu N. 2. Thorsby M. 76. Venturino L.
Coaches
Italiano V.	Vieira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Bernardeschi F. 🟨,
37', Vitinha 🟨,
42', Masini P. 🟨,
43', Ostigard L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ostigard L. ↓, Marcandalli A. ↑,
53', Colombo L. ↓, Ekuban C. ↑,
59', Dominguez B. ↓, Cambiaghi N. ↑,
59', De Silvestri L. ↓, Zortea N. ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Ellertsson M. E. ⚽, Malinovskyi R. (A),
69', Malinovskyi R. ↓, Carboni V. ↑,
69', Vitinha ↓, Ekhator J. ↑,
72', Moro N. ↓, Ferguson L. ↑,
72', Bernardeschi F. ↓, Dallinga T. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Castro S. ⚽, Cambiaghi N. (A),
74', Norton-Cuffy B. 🟨,
85', Heggem T. ↓, Lucumi J. ↑,
90+9', 2 - 1, Orsolini R. (Pen),
90+11', Carboni V. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Bologna is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Bologna: Bonifazi K. (Inactive) Casale N. (Thigh Injury) Immobile C. (Thigh Injury) Pobega T. (Thigh Injury) Sulemana I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Genoa: Cornet M. (Lacking Match Fitness) Onana J. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:21. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bologna won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
14.09.25	Milan - Bologna	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Bologna - Como	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Roma - Bologna	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Bologna - OFI	2:4 ✺
09.08.25	Stuttgart - Bologna	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWLLW
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie A
15.09.25	Como - Genoa	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Genoa - Juventus	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Genoa - Lecce	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.25	Genoa - Vicenza Virtus	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Rennes - Genoa	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
24.05.25	Bologna - Genoa	1:3
19.10.24	Genoa - Bologna	2:2
24.05.24	Genoa - Bologna	2:0
05.01.24	Bologna - Genoa	1:1
21.05.22	Genoa - Bologna	0:1
21.09.21	Bologna - Genoa	2:2
12.05.21	Bologna - Genoa	0:2

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