Match Info

Serie A - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2
Albania	Tring Sport 1, Tring Sport 5
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Indonesia	Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Prime
Kuwait	Shasha
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 2
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True Ball Thai 2, True ID
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Lecce		Genoa

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	5	Watch
	1.75	3.5	5
	1.75	3.55	4.95	Watch
	1.77	3.63	5.3
	1.74	3.63	4.93	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.6
	1.81	3.72	5.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.69)	3.56 ↓ (3.77)	4.99 ↓ (5.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
54.1%

Draw
26.8%

Genoa
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

25.2%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

24.5%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.7%	2.6%	7.7%

Lecce - Genoa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Lecce (1.27) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Lecce will win (35 of 39 users predict this - 89.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.22% – 99.26%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lecce will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 6 - 75%). Genoa (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 20. Ramadani Y. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 29. Coulibaly L. 19. Banda L. 99. Cheddira W.	1. Leali N. (G) 27. Marcandalli A. 34. Otoa S. 13. Zatterstrom N. 4. Amorim 20. Sabelli S. 32. Frendrup M. (C) 73. Masini P. 3. Martin A. 29. Colombo L. 77. Ellertsson M. E.
Substitutes
22. Camarda F. 8. Fofana S. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 16. Gandelman O. 4. Gaspar K. 28. Gorter O. 14. Helgason T. J. 18. Jean G. 36. Marchwinski F. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 9. Stulic N.	16. Bijlow J. (G) 71. Carbone F. 74. Doucoure M. 80. Grossi J. 75. Lafont G. 15. Norton-Cuffy B. 99. Ouedraogo W. L. 19. Romano M. 39. Sommariva D. (G) 97. Spicuglia E. 22. Vasquez J.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	De Rossi D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Banda L. ⚽, Pierotti S. (A),
45', Ramadani Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ngom O. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
60', Martin A. ↓, Norton-Cuffy B. ↑,
60', Sabelli S. ↓, Ouedraogo W. L. ↑,
65', Banda L. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
69', Amorim ↓, Grossi J. ↑,
76', Tiago Gabriel 🟨,
80', Cheddira W. ↓, Stulic N. ↑,
80', Pierotti S. ↓, Jean G. ↑,
83', Marcandalli A. ↓, Lafont G. ↑,
83', Masini P. ↓, Carbone F. ↑,
89', Ramadani Y. ↓, Gaspar K. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 17 and 15)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Genoa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lecce is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Lecce: Berisha M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Genoa: Junior Messias (Muscle Injury) Vitinha (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Lecce: Sottil R. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Genoa: Cornet M. (Muscle Injury) Norton-Cuffy B. (Thigh Injury) Ostigard L. (Knock)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Genoa: 0.14% Lecce: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5:10	-5	6
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3:10	-7	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
17.05.26	Sassuolo - Lecce	2:3 ✺
09.05.26	Lecce - Juventus	0:1 ✺
01.05.26	Pisa - Lecce	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Verona - Lecce	0:0 ✺
20.04.26	Lecce - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WLWTT
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie A
17.05.26	Genoa - Milan	1:2 ✺
10.05.26	Fiorentina - Genoa	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Atalanta - Genoa	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Genoa - Como	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Pisa - Genoa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
23.08.25	Genoa - Lecce	0:0
14.03.25	Genoa - Lecce	2:1
05.01.25	Lecce - Genoa	0:0
28.01.24	Genoa - Lecce	2:1
22.09.23	Lecce - Genoa	1:0
19.07.20	Genoa - Lecce	2:1
08.12.19	Lecce - Genoa	2:2

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