Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 22 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
World	Disney+


	Boston River		Nacional Potosí

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.44	4.33	7
	1.72	3.5	5	Watch
	1.74	3.55	5.4
	1.72	3.58	5.29	Watch
	1.44	4	7	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.95	Watch
	1.72	3.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.41)	3.76 ↓ (4.34)	5.55 ↓ (7.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boston River
57.6%

Draw
25.3%

Nacional Potosí
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.5%

21.6%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

20.3%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boston River has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Boston River's form might have worsened.

Nacional Potosí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional Potosí's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boston River than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boston River, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Potosí than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional Potosí, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Boston River - Nacional Potosí Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Boston River will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Nacional Potosí will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boston River: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional Potosí (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Nacional Potosí (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Boston River (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Boston River (votes: 1 - 20%). Nacional Potosí (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Antunez B. (G) 31. Acosta J. 30. Gonzalez M. 23. Rivero M. 22. Martinez F. 10. Amado A. 8. Vera M. 32. Barcia B. 70. Albarracin A. 24. Gutierrez J. 11. Noguera F.	1. Mustafa S. (G) 21. Baldomar O. 6. Restrepo E. 26. Echeverria S. 16. Torrico A. 8. Pavia L. 22. Hoyos D. 18. Azogue P. 28. Palacio D. 20. Prost M. 19. Abrego V.
Substitutes
9. Anello A. 14. Bortagaray G. 25. Chiappini F. 6. Dafonte F. 28. Gonzalez A. 33. Hernandez E. (G) 26. Munoa F. 15. O'Neill Lopez J. S. 29. Perez G. 7. Rodriguez F. 16. Silva A. 18. Viera G.	3. Acuna M. 29. Alvarez W. 33. Demiquel L. 24. Diellos D. 23. Galindo P. (G) 17. Guerra S. 10. Preciado C. 4. Roca C. 11. Rojas J. 7. Torres S.
Coaches
Viera J.	Vigevani C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Torrico A. ⚽,
38', Palacio D. 🟨,
45', Gutierrez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gutierrez J. ↓, Anello A. ↑,
51', Palacio D. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Albarracin A. ⚽, Amado A. (A),
68', Vera M. ↓, Viera G. ↑,
69', Barcia B. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Martinez F. ⚽,
74', Azogue P. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
78', Albarracin A. ↓, Perez G. ↑,
85', Prost M. ↓, Diellos D. ↑,
85', Pavia L. ↓, Preciado C. ↑,
89', Noguera F. ↓, Chiappini F. ↑,
90+1', Viera G. 🟨,

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Boston River is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boston River
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Danubio - Boston River	1:2 ✺
13.04.25	Boston River - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Independiente - Boston River	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.04.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Boston River	4:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Boston River - Guaraní Asuncion	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLLT
- Nacional Potosí
Bolivian Division Profesional
18.04.25	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Nacional Potosí	2:2 ✺
14.04.25	Nacional Potosí - Guabirá	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
06.04.25	The Strongest - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Nacional Potosí - Independiente	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWLLW

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