Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday

Location: Parque Artigas (Las Piedras)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Boston River		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.9	2.8	Watch
	2.38	3	2.98
	2.57	3.1	3.23
	2.31	3.09	3.25	Watch
	2.4	2.8	3.1
	2.5	3.05	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.63)	2.99 ↑ (2.98)	3.05 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boston River
38.4%

Draw
31.1%

Cerro Largo
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

31.3%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

32.1%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boston River has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boston River than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	30%	20%

Boston River - Cerro Largo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Boston River will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Cerro Largo will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boston River: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Antunez B. (G) 23. Rivero M. 30. Gonzalez M. (C) 13. Fernandez I. 15. Vazquez L. 24. O'Neill Lopez J. S. 5. Barrios F. 99. Reyna G. 10. Amado A. 21. Perez F. 8. Bonfiglio F.	12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 14. Correa L. 16. Fracchia M. 20. Franca S. 8. Garcia M. 15. Assis S. 5. Marcel S. 10. Pandiani A. 18. Daguerre D. 9. Correa T.
Substitutes
31. Acosta J. 14. Dafonte F. 9. Gonzalez A. 12. Gonzalez J. (G) 17. Haller R. 20. Hornos M. 3. Mancebo M. 28. Martinicorena F. 11. Ramirez G. 2. Sotto K.	11. Anasco M. 22. Bertocchi N. 2. Chocobar G. F. 25. Jourdan E. 1. Moreno J. (G) 3. Piegas A. 21. Pou J. 28. Ramos N. 19. Sellecchia F. 7. Viera G.
Coaches
Ithurralde I.	Nunez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Vazquez L. 🟨,
11', Pandiani A. 🟨,
17', Vazquez L. ↓, Acosta J. ↑,
21', Rivero M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rivero M. ↓, Ramirez G. ↑,
49', Marcel S. 🟨,
58', Reyna G. 🟨,
83', 1 - 0, Bonfiglio F. ⚽,
84', Bonfiglio F. ↓, Hornos M. ↑,
84', Perez F. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
89', Garcia M. ↓, Jourdan E. ↑,
89', Daguerre D. ↓, Sellecchia F. ↑,
89', Pandiani A. ↓, Anasco M. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 13 and 11)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boston River won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cerro Largo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Boston River won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Boston River won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.6:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Boston River	9	2	3	4	10:12	-2	9
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Boston River - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.52%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Cerro Largo - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 33.13%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boston River
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Millonarios - Boston River	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Boston River	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.26	Boston River - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.04.26	Boston River - Montevideo Wanderers	4:1 ✺
30.03.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Boston River	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LLLWW
- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.04.26	Cerro Largo - Cerro	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Albion Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:2 ✺
30.03.26	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
24.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	3:0 ✺
20.03.26	Cerro Largo - Deportivo Maldonado	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.25	Cerro Largo - Boston River	2:2
13.04.25	Boston River - Cerro Largo	1:0
02.11.24	Boston River - Cerro Largo	3:0
17.06.24	Boston River - Cerro Largo	0:2
27.04.24	Cerro Largo - Boston River	2:0
03.12.23	Boston River - Cerro Largo	0:1
05.05.23	Cerro Largo - Boston River	2:2

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