Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Paramount+, Rede Globo, Sky+, TV Globo, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Germany	Sport 1+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
Peru	ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Botafogo RJ		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	9.5	Watch
	1.35	4.75	10
	1.33	4.6	10.5	Watch
	1.35	4.84	10.92
	1.36	4.73	9.71	Watch
	1.29	4.6	9.5	Watch
	1.35	4.86	10.6	Watch
	1.33	4.6	10.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.45)	4.72 ↑ (4.14)	10.15 ↑ (7.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
70.7%

Draw
20%

Peñarol de Montevideo
9.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

22.8%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

22%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Botafogo RJ's performance.

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Botafogo RJ - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. John Victor (G) 22. Vitinho 15. Bastos 20. Barboza A. 13. Telles A. 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 26. Gregore 7. Luiz Henrique 10. Savarino J. 18. Almada T. 99. Jesus I.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 20. Milans P. 23. Mendez J. 4. Rodriguez G. 15. Olivera M. 6. Perez R. 14. Garcia D. 13. Darias E. 8. Fernandez L. 28. Baez J. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
34. Adryelson 28. Allan 33. Carlos Eduardo 66. Cuiabano 5. Danilo Barbosa 21. Marcal 37. Matheus Martins 4. Ponte M. 97. Raul (G) 70. Romero O. 6. Tche Tche 9. Tiquinho Soares	90. Avenatti F. 9. Batista F. 12. De Amores G. (G) 34. Herrera N. 2. Leo Coelho 27. Lucas Hernandez 22. Matheus Babi 18. Mayada C. 97. Medina A. 10. Ramirez G. 26. Sequeira L. 25. Sosa I.
Coaches
Artur Jorge	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Luiz Henrique 🟨,
36', Perez R. 🟨,
36', Jesus I. 🟨,
2nd Half (5 - 0)
51', 1 - 0, Savarino J. ⚽, Luiz Henrique (A),
55', 2 - 0, Barboza A. ⚽,
59', Darias E. ↓, Mayada C. ↑,
59', Garcia D. ↓, Ramirez G. ↑,
60', 3 - 0, Savarino J. ⚽, Vitinho (A),
61', Gregore 🟨,
62', Artur Jorge 🟨,
70', Silvera M. ↓, Sequeira L. ↑,
70', Baez J. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
73', 4 - 0, Luiz Henrique ⚽, Jesus I. (A),
75', Gregore ↓, Danilo Barbosa ↑,
75', Luiz Henrique ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
79', 5 - 0, Jesus I. ⚽,
81', Vitinho ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
81', Jesus I. ↓, Romero O. ↑,
86', Telles A. ↓, Marcal ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Peñarol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Botafogo is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Botafogo to win the game is with odds 1.34.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.24	Botafogo RJ - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
05.10.24	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
28.09.24	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.09.24	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.24	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TWTWW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.10.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	2:0 ✺
16.10.24	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
11.10.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:0 ✺
06.10.24	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
30.09.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWWLT

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