Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 5

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Athletico Paranaense		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.3	3.9	Watch
	2	3.4	3.8
	2.02	3.2	3.7	Watch
	2.04	3.35	4.22
	2.01	3.35	4	Watch
	1.85	3.1	3.8
	1.98	3.43	4.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.09)	3.3 ↓ (3.39)	3.96 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
47.7%

Draw
28.5%

Botafogo RJ
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

28.1%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

27.6%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	7.1%	67.9%

Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 14 - 25.5%). Botafogo will win (votes: 38 - 69.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 56.9% – 81.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Botafogo (3.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Botafogo (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botafogo RJ will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Botafogo (votes: 9 - 81.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 4. Arthur Dias 33. Aguirre F. 37. Esquivel L. 29. Benavidez G. 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo 7. Mendoza S. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 20. Julimar 9. Viveros K.	1. Raul Steffens (G) 2. Vitinho 15. Bastos 20. Barboza A. 13. Alex Telles (C) 88. Edenilson 6. Medina C. 23. Rodriguez S. 10. Montoro A. 11. Matheus Martins 19. Arthur Cabral
Substitutes
26. Claudinho 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 8. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 13. Teran C. 10. Zapelli B.	14. Barrera J. 27. Caio Roque 45. Caio Valle 17. Junior Santos 34. Justino G. 42. Kadu Santos 24. Leo Linck (G) 16. Nathan Fernandes 4. Ponte M. 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 55. Wallace Davi 3. Ythallo
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Dias Bellao R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Viveros K. ⚽, Dudu Kogitzki (A),
17', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
36', Medina C. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Edenilson ⚽,
45+3', 2 - 1, Viveros K. ⚽, Benavidez G. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', Barboza A. 🟨,
49', 3 - 1, Aguirre F. ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
57', Arthur Dias 🟨,
59', Rodriguez S. ↓, Villalba Jaume L. M. ↑,
59', Matheus Martins ↓, Junior Santos ↑,
61', Julimar ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
61', Arthur Dias ↓, Teran C. ↑,
75', Edenilson ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
75', Arthur Cabral ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
82', 4 - 1, Esquivel L. ⚽,
88', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Portilla J. ↑,
89', Viveros K. ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
90', Mendoza S. ↓, Leo Derik ↑,
90+2', Junior Santos 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Botafogo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Athletico PR is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:16. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 1.4:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
22.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	3:2 ✺
25.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLTL
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
21.03.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo RJ	1:2 ✺
18.03.26	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.03.26	Botafogo RJ - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.03.26	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.10.24	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	0:1
19.06.24	Botafogo RJ - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
22.10.23	Botafogo RJ - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
03.06.23	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	1:0
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Botafogo RJ - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 penalties
17.05.23	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	3:2
Brazilian Serie A
13.11.22	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	3:0

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