Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 21

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)


	Botafogo RJ		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.9	4.75	Watch
	1.71	3.90	4.60
	1.75	3.45	4.4	Watch
	1.8	3.9	4.8
	1.82	3.85	4.19	Watch
	1.76	3.75	4.8
	1.7	3.92	5.02	Watch
	1.73	3.8	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 (1.74)	3.81 ↑ (3.8)	4.62 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
54.5%

Draw
24.9%

Grêmio
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

24.8%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Botafogo RJ - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Batista (G) 2. Vitinho 3. Arthur Chaves 33. Monzon L. 13. Alex Telles (C) 75. Huguinho 8. Danilo Santos 88. Edenilson 7. Junior Santos 10. Montoro A. 19. Arthur Cabral	1. Weverton (G) 27. Diego Caito 82. Wallace 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 38. Caio Paulista 8. Noriega E. 7. Pavon C. 20. Villasanti M. 10. Krovinovic F. 77. Cabral J. 95. Carlos Vinicius
Substitutes
25. Allan 91. Andrade D. 90. Danilo Pereira 79. Jales do Nascimento L. E. 34. Justino G. 42. Kadu Santos 59. Kauan Toledo 21. Marcal 29. Paulinho 9. Tiquinho Soares 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 17. Warleson (G)	22. Braithwaite M. 15. Danilo Barbosa 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 6. Gustavo Martins 18. Joao Pedro 14. Marcos Rocha 30. Matheus Nascimento 31. Menegon G. (G) 5. Nardoni J. 11. Tete 3. Wagner Leonardo
Coaches
Dias Bellao R.	Scolari L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Danilo Santos ⚽, Montoro A. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Cabral J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Edenilson ↓, Danilo Pereira ↑,
46', Monzon L. ↓, Justino G. ↑,
52', 2 - 1, Montoro A. ⚽, Vitinho (A),
60', Cabral J. ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
66', Krovinovic F. ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
73', Junior Santos ↓, Marcal ↑,
78', Villasanti M. 🟨,
78', Noriega E. ↓, Matheus Nascimento ↑,
78', Pavon C. ↓, Tete ↑,
79', 3 - 1, Danilo Santos ⚽, Montoro A. (A),
85', Montoro A. ↓, Allan ↑,
86', Arthur Cabral ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
88', 3 - 2, Gustavo Martins ⚽, Tete (A),
90+4', Danilo Pereira 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 2.

Botafogo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Grêmio has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Botafogo is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Alex Telles (Injury) Allan (Muscle Injury) Huguinho (Yellow Cards) Junior Santos (Foot Injury) Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Fabian Balbuena (Inactive) Noriega E. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 23:36. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.3:1.6).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Gremio: 0.85% Botafogo RJ: 0.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio - the odds 4.45 are the expected chance of winning is 21.15%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	3:0 ✺
24.08.26	Botafogo RJ - Athletico Paranaense	2:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.08.26	Botafogo RJ - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TTLLW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
03.09.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.26	Grêmio - Chapecoense	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.08.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	5:3
22.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2
24.09.25	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	1:1
28.09.24	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	0:0
16.06.24	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	1:2
09.11.23	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:4
09.07.23	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	0:2

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