Match Info

Serie D - Round 2

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Estrela d'Alva (Bage)


	Guarany de Bagé		Joinville

	1	X	2
	2.23	3.2	3.74
	2.22	2.76	3.67	Watch
	2.15	2.88	3.2
	2.2	3.25	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.35)	3.02 ↑ (2.5)	3.47 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarany de Bagé
42.3%

Draw
30.8%

Joinville
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

36.3%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

35.8%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarany de Bagé has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-2%)

Guarany de Bagé - Joinville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Guarany de Bagé has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Joinville has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guarany de Bagé may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Guarany de Bagé has had a series of away games.

Recently, Joinville has had a series of home games.

Guarany de Bagé is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Guarany de Bagé won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Guarany de Bagé won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarany de Bagé
Brazilian Serie D
05.04.26	Cianorte - Guarany de Bagé	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.03.26	Ponte Preta - Guarany de Bagé	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
07.03.26	Monsoon - Guarany de Bagé	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Avenida	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Caxias - Guarany de Bagé	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLLTW
- Joinville
Brazilian Serie D
04.04.26	Joinville - São Luiz	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.03.26	Joinville - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.03.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Joinville	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Joinville - Figueirense	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
24.02.26	Joinville - CS Alagoano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Guarany de Bagé - Joinville	2:1
19.04.25	Joinville - Guarany de Bagé	1:0

Guarany de Bagé - Joinville: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide