Match Info

Premier League - Round 3

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Amex Stadium (Brighton) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Supersport Action
Argentina	11:00	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	00:00	Stan Sport
Austria	16:00	Laola1, Sky Go Austria
Bosnia And Herzegovina	16:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	11:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	17:00	Nova Sport
Canada	10:00	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Croatia	16:00	Arena Sport 3
Cyprus	17:00	Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	16:00	CANAL+ Sport 8
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	17:00	Viaplay
France	16:00	Canal+ Live 4, CANAL+ Sport
Germany	16:00	Laola1, Sky Go Germany
Greece	17:00	Nova Sports 2
India	19:30	JioStar, JioTV app
Italy	16:00	SKY Go Italia
Malaysia	22:00	Astro Premier League 3
Malta	16:00	TSN Malta 7
Mexico	08:00	Disney+
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	02:00	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 9
Norway	16:00	Viaplay
Peru	09:00	Disney+
Poland	16:00	Canal+ Extra 7
Portugal	15:00	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Serbia	16:00	Arena Sport 2
Slovenia	16:00	Arena Sport 2
South Korea	23:00	Coupang Play
Spain	16:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay
Turkey	17:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX
Uruguay	11:00	Disney+
Usa	10:00	FuboTV, NBC Universo, NBC, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo
Venezuela	10:00	Disney+


	Brighton & Hove Albion		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	2	3.5	3.7
	2.00	3.50	3.60
	2.05	3.45	3.6
	2.09	3.7	3.66
	2.13	3.66	3.46	Watch
	2.03	3.65	3.6
	2.08	3.74	3.74	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.85)	3.6 ↓ (3.8)	3.63 ↓ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brighton & Hove Albion
46.8%

Draw
26.7%

Leeds United
26.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.9%

25.3%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

24.4%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brighton & Hove Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brighton & Hove Albion's form might have worsened.

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brighton & Hove Albion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.7%	6.2%	6.2%

Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Brighton & Hove (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Brighton & Hove Albion will win (57 of 65 users predict this - 87.69%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.7% – 95.68%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brighton & Hove Albion will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Brighton & Hove (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Verbruggen B. (G) 24. Kadioglu F. 44. Vuskovic L. 5. Dunk L. (C) 21. Boscagli O. 13. Gross P. 26. Ayari Y. 25. Gomez D. 35. Yalcouye M. 29. De Cuyper M. 19. Kostoulas C.	1. Trafford J. (G) 24. Justin J. 30. Elvedi N. 5. Muharemovic T. 2. Bogle J. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 22. Tanaka A. 3. Gudmundsson G. 18. Stach A. 19. Okafor N. 9. Calvert-Lewin D.
Substitutes
14. Andres C. 20. Costinha 12. David P. 3. Hadjam J. 33. O'Riley M. 49. Oriola N. 15. Osman I. 23. Steele J. (G) 4. Struijk P.	11. Aaronson B. 23. Bahoya J. 26. Bard M. 15. Bijol J. 7. James D. 8. Longstaff S. 14. Nmecha L. 10. Wilson H. 16. Zetterer M. (G)
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Bogle J. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Bogle J. ⚽, Tanaka A. (A),
38', Gross P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', De Cuyper M. 🟨,
61', Bogle J. ↓, Bijol J. ↑,
62', Okafor N. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
64', Calvert-Lewin D. 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Vuskovic L. ⚽, De Cuyper M. (A),
73', Tanaka A. ↓, Wilson H. ↑,
74', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
77', De Cuyper M. ↓, David P. ↑,
78', Kadioglu F. ↓, Costinha ↑,
85', Wilson H. 🟨,
87', David P. 🟨,
90+3', Boscagli O. ↓, Struijk P. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Brighton & Hove is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Azeez F. (Abdominal strain) Ferguson E. (Ankle Injury) Hinshelwood J. (Injury) Minteh Y. (Injury) Mitoma K. (Hamstring Injury) Svoboda M. (Injury) Tzimas S. (Knee Injury) Wieffer M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: Gruev I. (Knee Injury) Joseph M. (Knee Injury) Rodon J. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Brighton & Hove: Rutter G. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:13. (average 1.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Brighton & Hove won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:2. (average 1.9:0.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Brighton	8	5	1	2	23:7	16	16
7	Leeds	8	2	5	1	9:6	3	11

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Brighton: 4.11% Leeds: 0.59%

Last Results with these Odds

Brighton & Hove Albion - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 51.91%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
30.08.26	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	4:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Tromsø	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.08.26	Tromsø - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Bologna	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWTW
- Leeds United
English Premier League
30.08.26	Leeds United - Brentford	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
22.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Leeds United - Augsburg	4:0 ✺
12.08.26	Manchester United - Leeds United	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
17.05.26	Leeds United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0
01.11.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United	3:0
11.03.23	Leeds United - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2
27.08.22	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United	1:0
15.05.22	Leeds United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:1
27.11.21	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United	0:0
01.05.21	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United	2:0

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