Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nottingham Forest		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.30	3.10
	2.12	3.4	3.05	Watch
	2.34	3.37	3.22
	2.29	3.36	3.19	Watch
	2.25	3.3	3.1
	2.34	3.38	3.19	Watch
	2.27	3.4	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.18)	3.35 ↓ (3.46)	3.17 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
41.9%

Draw
28.2%

Leeds United
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

27.3%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

27.4%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35%	40%	25%

Nottingham Forest - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Nottingham will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Leeds will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 36.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nottingham: 15.1% – 58.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Sels M. (G) 2. Diomande O. 31. Milenkovic N. 23. Cunha 34. Aina O. 21. Schlager X. 8. Dominguez N. 3. Williams N. 11. Igor Jesus 9. Wood Ch. (C) 15. Kalimuendo A.	1. Trafford J. (G) 6. Rodon J. 30. Elvedi N. 5. Muharemovic T. 7. James D. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 22. Tanaka A. 24. Justin J. 8. Longstaff S. 19. Okafor N. 14. Nmecha L.
Substitutes
44. Abbott Z. 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 20. Hutchinson O. 12. John Victor (G) 24. McAtee J. 5. Murillo 14. Ndoye D. 25. Netz L. 6. Sangare I.	11. Aaronson B. 15. Bijol J. 2. Bogle J. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 50. Cresswell A. 65. Lienou J. 23. Lucas Perri (G) 18. Stach A. 10. Wilson H.
Coaches
Glasner O.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Tanaka A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Schlager X. 🟨,
50', 0 - 1, James D. ⚽, Longstaff S. (A),
60', Diomande O. ↓, Murillo ↑,
60', Igor Jesus ↓, Ndoye D. ↑,
60', Kalimuendo A. ↓, Hudson-Odoi C. ↑,
61', Aina O. ↓, Netz L. ↑,
67', Longstaff S. 🟨,
67', Longstaff S. ↓, Wilson H. ↑,
68', Okafor N. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
68', Tanaka A. ↓, Stach A. ↑,
71', James D. ↓, Bogle J. ↑,
73', Cunha 🟨,
75', 0 - 2, Justin J. ⚽,
79', Murillo 🟨,
79', Williams N. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
83', Nmecha L. ↓, Calvert-Lewin D. ↑,
84', Dominguez N. 🟨,
86', Ampadu E. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 1.

Recent performances by Nottingham have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leeds is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Leeds has had a series of away games.

Nottingham will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Nottingham: Savona N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: Joseph M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Yates R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Gnonto W. (Hamstring Injury) Gruev I. (Knee Injury) Gudmundsson G. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:21. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nottingham won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.5:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Nottingham Forest - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.28%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
22.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Brest	2:0 ✺
12.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Bayer Leverkusen	2:1 ✺
31.07.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nottingham Forest	4:1 ✺
31.07.26	Portimonense - Nottingham Forest	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWLW
- Leeds United
English Premier League
22.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Leeds United - Augsburg	4:0 ✺
12.08.26	Manchester United - Leeds United	2:1 penalties ✺
Premier League Summer Series
02.08.26	Liverpool - Leeds United	2:4 ✺
30.07.26	Sunderland - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
22.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:1
06.02.26	Leeds United - Nottingham Forest	3:1
09.11.25	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	3:1
Club Friendly
27.07.23	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:2
English Premier League
04.04.23	Leeds United - Nottingham Forest	2:1
05.02.23	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	1:0
English League Championship
08.02.20	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	2:0

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