Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
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Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
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France	Canal+ Live 6
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Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
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World	Sport 24 At Sea


	Manchester City		Brighton & Hove Albion

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.75
	1.43	5	6.25
	1.5	4.65	6.1
	1.51	4.87	6.07	Watch
	1.5	4.4	5.5
	1.52	4.64	6.31	Watch
	1.55	4.33	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.41)	4.63 ↓ (5.31)	5.95 ↓ (6.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
63.4%

Draw
20.6%

Brighton & Hove Albion
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

17.9%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.8%

16.8%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Brighton & Hove Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Manchester City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.3%	6.5%	3.2%

Manchester City - Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Brighton & Hove (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (84 of 93 users predict this - 90.32%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.31% – 96.33%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (37 of 41 users predict this - 90.24%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 42 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 37 - 88.1%). Brighton & Hove (votes: 2 - 4.8%). Tie (votes: 3 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 45. Khusanov A. 68. Alleyne M. 6. Ake N. 14. Nico 20. Silva B. (C) 4. Reijnders T. 47. Foden P. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.	1. Verbruggen B. (G) 13. Hinshelwood J. 6. van Hecke J. P. 5. Dunk L. (C) 29. De Cuyper M. 26. Ayari Y. 30. Gross P. 24. Kadioglu F. 25. Gomez D. 22. Mitoma K. 10. Rutter G.
Substitutes
10. Cherki R. 92. Heskey R. 82. Lewis R. 56. McAidoo R. 91. Mfuni S. 63. Mukasa D. 33. O'Reilly N. 16. Rodri 1. Trafford J. (G)	21. Boscagli O. 42. Coppola D. 8. Gruda B. 53. Howell H. 20. Milner J. 23. Steele J. (G) 51. Tasker C. 14. Watson T. 18. Welbeck D.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Hurzeler F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Dunk L. 🟨,
41', Gross P. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Haaland E. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', van Hecke J. P. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Mitoma K. ⚽, Ayari Y. (A),
60', De Cuyper M. 🟨,
60', Donnarumma G. 🟨,
64', Nico ↓, Rodri ↑,
69', Mitoma K. 🟨,
73', Foden P. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
73', Ake N. ↓, O'Reilly N. ↑,
73', Nunes M. ↓, Lewis R. ↑,
77', Rutter G. ↓, Welbeck D. ↑,
77', Gomez D. ↓, Gruda B. ↑,
83', Mitoma K. ↓, Watson T. ↑,
83', Ayari Y. ↓, Milner J. ↑,
89', Watson T. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 2.

Man City is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Brighton & Hove has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Brighton & Hove may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man City is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Man City: Ait Nouri R. (International duty) Bobb O. (Hamstring Injury) Dias R. (Thigh Injury) Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury) Marmoush O. (International duty) Stones J. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Baleba C. (International duty) March S. (Knee Injury) Tzimas S. (Knee Injury) Webster A. (Knee Injury) Wieffer M. (Toe Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Savinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Brighton & Hove: Minteh Y. (Thigh Injury)

We predict that Man City will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Man City won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 45:15. (average 2.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:5. (average 2.3:0.6).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Manchester City: 17.65% Brighton: 2.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13:5	8	15
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16:5	11	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
04.01.26	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Sunderland - Manchester City	0:0 ✺
27.12.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Manchester City - West Ham United	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
17.12.25	Manchester City - Brentford	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TTWWW
- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
03.01.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Burnley	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	West Ham United - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
27.12.25	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Sunderland	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Liverpool - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
31.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	2:1
15.03.25	Manchester City - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2
09.11.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	2:1
25.04.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	0:4
21.10.23	Manchester City - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1
24.05.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	1:1
22.10.22	Manchester City - Brighton & Hove Albion	3:1

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