What is the expert prediction for Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, January 07, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Star Sports 1 Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 7 DRM, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 6
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 1, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport 3
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League 3, Astro Premier League, Astro Sports, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Mexico	FOX One
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	Hub Premier 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Sport 24 At Sea


	Manchester City		Brighton & Hove Albion

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.75
	1.43	5	6.25
	1.5	4.65	6.1
	1.51	4.87	6.07	Watch
	1.5	4.4	5.5
	1.52	4.64	6.31	Watch
	1.55	4.33	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.41)	4.63 ↓ (5.31)	5.95 ↓ (6.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
63.4%

Draw
20.6%

Brighton & Hove Albion
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

17.9%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.8%

16.8%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Brighton & Hove Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Manchester City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.3%	6.5%	3.2%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 93 users predict this event. Man City will win (votes: 84 - 90.3%). Brighton & Hove will win (votes: 3 - 3.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 6.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 84.3% – 96.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Brighton & Hove (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Brighton & Hove (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Brighton & Hove (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (37 of 41 users predict this - 90.24%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 44 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 37 - 84.1%). Brighton & Hove (votes: 4 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 6.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 45. Khusanov A. 68. Alleyne M. 6. Ake N. 14. Nico 20. Silva B. (C) 4. Reijnders T. 47. Foden P. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.	1. Verbruggen B. (G) 13. Hinshelwood J. 6. van Hecke J. P. 5. Dunk L. (C) 29. De Cuyper M. 26. Ayari Y. 30. Gross P. 24. Kadioglu F. 25. Gomez D. 22. Mitoma K. 10. Rutter G.
Substitutes
10. Cherki R. 92. Heskey R. 82. Lewis R. 56. McAidoo R. 91. Mfuni S. 63. Mukasa D. 33. O'Reilly N. 16. Rodri 1. Trafford J. (G)	21. Boscagli O. 42. Coppola D. 8. Gruda B. 53. Howell H. 20. Milner J. 23. Steele J. (G) 51. Tasker C. 14. Watson T. 18. Welbeck D.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Hurzeler F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Dunk L. 🟨,
41', Gross P. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Haaland E. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', van Hecke J. P. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Mitoma K. ⚽, Ayari Y. (A),
60', De Cuyper M. 🟨,
60', Donnarumma G. 🟨,
64', Nico ↓, Rodri ↑,
69', Mitoma K. 🟨,
73', Foden P. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
73', Ake N. ↓, O'Reilly N. ↑,
73', Nunes M. ↓, Lewis R. ↑,
77', Rutter G. ↓, Welbeck D. ↑,
77', Gomez D. ↓, Gruda B. ↑,
83', Mitoma K. ↓, Watson T. ↑,
83', Ayari Y. ↓, Milner J. ↑,
89', Watson T. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 2.

Man City is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Brighton & Hove has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Brighton & Hove may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man City is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Man City: Ait Nouri R. (International duty) Bobb O. (Hamstring Injury) Dias R. (Thigh Injury) Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury) Marmoush O. (International duty) Stones J. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Baleba C. (International duty) March S. (Knee Injury) Tzimas S. (Knee Injury) Webster A. (Knee Injury) Wieffer M. (Toe Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Savinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Brighton & Hove: Minteh Y. (Thigh Injury)

We predict that Man City will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Man City won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 45:15. (average 2.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:5. (average 2.3:0.6).

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Outrights of English Premier League for now

Manchester City: 19.69%

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Manchester City ✔	36	23	8	5	75:32	43	77
7	Brighton	36	14	11	11	52:42	10	53

Last Results with these Odds

Manchester City - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 67.53%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
04.01.26	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Sunderland - Manchester City	0:0 ✺
27.12.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Manchester City - West Ham United	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
17.12.25	Manchester City - Brentford	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TTWWW
- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
03.01.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Burnley	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	West Ham United - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
27.12.25	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Sunderland	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Liverpool - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
31.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	2:1
15.03.25	Manchester City - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2
09.11.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	2:1
25.04.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	0:4
21.10.23	Manchester City - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1
24.05.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	1:1
22.10.22	Manchester City - Brighton & Hove Albion	3:1

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