Match Info

Championship - Round 1

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bristol City		Millwall

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.4	2.75	Watch
	2.60	3.30	2.65
	2.46	3.38	2.81	Watch
	2.63	3.51	2.76
	2.54	3.4	2.74	Watch
	2.5	3.45	2.8
	2.52	3.5	2.88	Watch
	2.47	3.35	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.45)	3.41 ↑ (3.35)	2.77 ↑ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol City
37.8%

Draw
27.9%

Millwall
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

27.9%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

28.8%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Millwall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Bristol City - Millwall Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bristol City will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Millwall will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tickle S. (G) 19. Tanner G. 16. Dickie R. 5. Atkinson R. 2. Eissat L. 12. Knight J. (C) 4. Randell A. 7. Hirakawa Y. 23. Ballard D. 20. Greenwood S. 9. Tolaj L.	1. Jensen L. (G) 18. Leonard R. 6. Taylor C. 5. Cooper J. (C) 3. Sturge Z. 14. Metcalfe J. 24. De Norre C. 11. Azeez F. 10. Neghli C. 7. Arconte T. 19. Coburn J.
Substitutes
11. Bell S. 21. Cardines R. 40. Collins B. (G) 38. Eile N. 18. Riis E. 10. Twine S. 17. Wallace J. 8. Williams J. 27. Yah G.	12. Baggott E. 31. Bangura-Williams R. 23. Batth D. 15. Crocombe M. (G) 25. Cundle L. 13. Dykes L. 16. Kelly D. 22. Lisbie K. 17. Sykes M.
Coaches
Skubala M.	Neil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', Coburn J. 🟨,
23', Randell A. 🟨,
29', Azeez F. ↓, Lisbie K. ↑,
36', Randell A. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Coburn J. ⚽,
45', Metcalfe J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hirakawa Y. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
50', 0 - 2, Coburn J. ⚽, Metcalfe J. (A),
56', Eissat L. ↓, Cardines R. ↑,
64', Tolaj L. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
64', Greenwood S. ↓, Riis E. ↑,
64', Ballard D. ↓, Wallace J. ↑,
64', Arconte T. ↓, Cundle L. ↑,
64', Metcalfe J. ↓, Sykes M. ↑,
82', Sturge Z. ↓, Kelly D. ↑,
83', Coburn J. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bristol City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Millwall has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Bristol City: McNally L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Millwall: Crama T. (Injury) Ivanovic M. (Injury) Mazou-Sacko D. (Injury) Servais M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bristol City: Thomas O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Millwall: Doughty A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:27. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol City won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.1:1.6).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Millwall: 2% Bristol City: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16:15	1	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12:13	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol City - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.22%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Millwall - the odds 2.77 are the expected chance of winning is 33.83%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol City
English League Cup
06.08.26	Bristol City - Walsall	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Exeter City - Bristol City	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Plymouth Argyle - Bristol City	0:0 ✺
29.07.26	Bristol City - Newcastle United	4:1 ✺
29.07.26	Forest Green Rovers - Bristol City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTTWL
- Millwall
English League Cup
08.08.26	Queens Park Rangers - Millwall	1:2 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Millwall - Royal Antwerp	1:0 ✺
28.07.26	Bromley - Millwall	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	Stevenage Borough - Millwall	1:0 ✺
21.07.26	Gillingham - Millwall	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.12.25	Millwall - Bristol City	2:1
06.12.25	Bristol City - Millwall	0:1
04.03.25	Millwall - Bristol City	0:2
17.08.24	Bristol City - Millwall	4:3
01.01.24	Bristol City - Millwall	0:1
12.08.23	Millwall - Bristol City	0:1
29.12.22	Millwall - Bristol City	0:0

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