Match Info

Championship - Round 37

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: The Den (London)

Referee: Donohue M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Millwall		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.4	3.6	Watch
	2	3.3	3.9
	2.03	3.56	3.56
	2.09	3.54	3.71
	2.02	3.54	3.64	Watch
	2	3.3	3.5
	2.02	3.4	3.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.94)	3.43 ↓ (3.57)	3.64 ↓ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millwall
46.7%

Draw
27.4%

Derby County
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

26.4%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

26.7%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millwall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.4%	16.3%	14.3%

Millwall - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Millwall will win (votes: 34 - 72.3%). Derby will win (votes: 7 - 14.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 59.5% – 85.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Derby (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Millwall will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Millwall (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Derby (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Patterson A. (G) 2. McNamara D. 4. Crama T. 5. Cooper J. (C) 3. Sturge Z. 11. Azeez F. 67. Bannan B. 8. Mitchell B. 10. Neghli C. 9. Ivanovic M. 19. Coburn J.	31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 2. Murkin D. 18. Ozoh D. 27. Travis L. (C) 25. Brereton Diaz B. 19. Szmodics S. 10. Brewster R. 7. Agyemang P.
Substitutes
7. Ballo T. 31. Bangura-Williams R. 23. Bryan-Edwards R. 15. Crocombe M. (G) 25. Cundle L. 17. Langstaff M. 49. Mazou-Sacko D. 39. Smallbone W. 22. Watson T.	54. Allen C. 34. Banel J. 42. Clark B. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 29. Fraulo O. 44. Gordon I. 9. Morris C. 12. O'Donnell R. (G)
Coaches
Neil A.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Coburn J. ⚽, Crama T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ozoh D. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
55', Clark B. 🟨,
58', Sanderson D. 🟨,
60', Brewster R. ↓, Morris C. ↑,
60', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Banel J. ↑,
62', Morris C. 🟨,
72', Bannan B. ↓, Cundle L. ↑,
73', Ivanovic M. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
84', Travis L. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
86', Vickers J. ↓, O'Donnell R. ↑,
89', Mitchell B. ↓, Smallbone W. ↑,
89', Azeez F. ↓, Watson T. ↑,
90+1', Coburn J. ↓, Mazou-Sacko D. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 2.

Millwall is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Derby has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Millwall might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Millwall: Jensen L. (Muscle Injury) Kelly D. (Injury) Luongo M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Batth D. (Muscle Injury) Elder C. (Inactive) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Langas S. (Hamstring Injury) Salvesen L. (Muscle Injury) Thompson L. (Muscle Injury) Widell Zetterstrom J. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Millwall: Bryan J. (Injury) Taylor C. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Millwall won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.2:1.6).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Millwall: 5.26% Derby: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16:15	1	14
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Derby County - the odds 3.79 are the expected chance of winning is 24.91%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millwall
English League Championship
07.03.26	Hull City - Millwall	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Preston North End - Millwall	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Millwall - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Millwall - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Sheffield Wednesday - Millwall	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWLW
- Derby County
English League Championship
07.03.26	Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	3:1 ✺
24.02.26	Hull City - Derby County	4:2 ✺
21.02.26	Watford - Derby County	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Derby County - Swansea City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
10.12.25	Derby County - Millwall	1:1
22.02.25	Derby County - Millwall	0:1
19.10.24	Millwall - Derby County	1:1
23.02.22	Derby County - Millwall	1:2
06.11.21	Millwall - Derby County	1:1
13.03.21	Derby County - Millwall	0:1
05.12.20	Millwall - Derby County	0:1

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