Match Info

EFL Trophy - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Memorial Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Durkin J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Bristol Rovers		Cambridge United

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.9	2.55	Watch
	2.78	2.92	2.58	Watch
	2.17	3.13	3.48
	1.41	4.34	7.66	Watch
	2.1	3	3.25
	2.79	2.89	2.46	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.68)	3.15 ↓ (3.38)	3.51 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol Rovers
40.8%

Draw
31.2%

Cambridge United
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

27.1%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

26.9%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bristol Rovers's performance.

Cambridge United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cambridge United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bristol Rovers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cambridge United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Bristol Rovers - Cambridge United Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bristol Rovers will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Cambridge will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol Rovers: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol Rovers (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bristol Rovers (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol Rovers (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Southwood L. (G) 35. Lopata K. 28. Negru S. 6. Mola C. 14. Cotterill J. 20. McEachran J. 24. Chang A. 3. Sparkes J. 11. Thomas L. 30. Issaka F. 19. Harrison E.	25. Hughes B. (G) 26. Gibbons J. 23. Jobe M. 16. Ibsen Rossi Z. 22. Bradshaw Z. 17. Mpanzu P. 38. Hoddle G. 14. Knight B. 27. McConnell G. 11. Kaikai S. 10. Kachunga E.
Substitutes
29. Cavegn F. 22. Conteh K. 7. Forde S. 25. Howley R. 4. Moore T. 39. Morton C. 13. Young B. (G)	2. Bennett L. 7. Brophy J. 1. Eastwood J. (G) 15. Mayor A. 40. McKoy J. 29. Munday G. 6. Watts K.
Coaches
Clarke D.	Harris N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Harrison E. (Pen),
18', 2 - 0, Harrison E. ⚽, Thomas L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', McConnell G. ↓, Brophy J. ↑,
46', Cotterill J. ↓, Howley R. ↑,
46', Harrison E. ↓, Cavegn F. ↑,
46', McEachran J. ↓, Conteh K. ↑,
51', Chang A. 🟨,
56', Issaka F. ↓, Morton C. ↑,
64', Kachunga E. ↓, Munday G. ↑,
64', Jobe M. ↓, Watts K. ↑,
66', Hoddle G. 🟨,
68', 2 - 1, Watts K. ⚽, Munday G. (A),
69', Lopata K. ↓, Moore T. ↑,
77', Conteh K. 🟨,
83', Knight B. ↓, Mayor A. ↑,
83', Gibbons J. ↓, Bennett L. ↑,
84', Howley R. 🟨,
87', Mola C. 🟨,
90+1', Southwood L. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 2, Kaikai S. (Pen),
Penalties (4 - 2)
1, Cavegn F. (Pen),
1, Kaikai S. (Pen),
2, Sparkes J. (Pen),
2, Brophy J. (Pen),
3, Thomas L. (Pen),
3, Munday G. (Pen),
4, Morton C. (Pen),
4, Mpanzu P. (Pen),
5, Conteh K. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol Rovers won 4.

Recent form of Bristol Rovers has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cambridge is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Bristol Rovers won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 1.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol Rovers won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:4. (average 1.9:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol Rovers - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.18%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol Rovers
English League Two
29.11.25	Bristol Rovers - Notts County	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Cheltenham Town - Bristol Rovers	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Accrington Stanley - Bristol Rovers	3:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Bristol Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	1:0 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Bristol Rovers - Gillingham	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLWL
- Cambridge United
English League Two
29.11.25	Cambridge United - Crewe Alexandra	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Barrow - Cambridge United	0:2 ✺
15.11.25	Cambridge United - Barnet	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Salford City - Cambridge United	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
05.11.25	Cambridge United - Brighton & Hove Albion U21	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
23.08.25	Bristol Rovers - Cambridge United	1:0
English League Cup
12.08.25	Bristol Rovers - Cambridge United	0:2
English League One
04.01.25	Cambridge United - Bristol Rovers	0:1
31.08.24	Bristol Rovers - Cambridge United	2:0
16.04.24	Bristol Rovers - Cambridge United	1:0
19.08.23	Cambridge United - Bristol Rovers	2:0
07.01.23	Cambridge United - Bristol Rovers	1:2

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